The emergence of a second wave of the epidemic of coronavirus in Russia is unlikely, as it is characteristic of countries that have satisfied strict quarantine. This was stated by the expert on statistics and modeling, Center for economic research Aghasi Tavadyan.
According to him, Russia has limitations due COVID-19 comply with at least 80% of the population, reports RIA Novosti.
on the one hand, due to this lack of discipline will be observed a long “tail” of the pandemic, the number of infections to be significant, but on the other hand, one can not expect the second wave, — said the expert.
He believes that the country is the dynamics of the disease will not change until you have been ill for about 70% of the population. This will lead to the development of herd immunity and the spread of coronavirus pauses. Also the dynamics can influence the appearance of the vaccine, although its mass use can begin no earlier than 2021, said Tavadyan.
He added that Russia is working on nearly 150 vaccines, but so far only one of them approved for mass vaccination.
But still need to build new factories for mass production… approved vials of the vaccine. To establish logistics channels for their distribution. You need to conduct campaigns and convince people to take these vaccines — said the expert.
Tavadyan admits that the positive scenario, vaccination can only begin in the first quarter of 2021, and by this time, and herd immunity will be developed.
Judging by the dynamics of infections in Russia expected a critical mass of cases, and therefore herd immunity, until September will not be exact — said the expert.
Earlier NEWS.ru reported that French scientists have identified the most frequent symptom is typical for patients with severe COVID-19. In particular, in these patients there has been a shortage of interferon and a high level of inflammation. The study analyzed data of 50 people who have the coronavirus led to serious complications.
