This does not mean transfer prices to increase, which is still more reinforced by the expectations and positive trends but not significant increases in consumption. The risks of another collapse remain. They are connected not only with the epidemiological uncertainty, but also with geopolitics, as well as market speculations.
Signs of increased demand for oil and oil products in Europe, said the Deputy energy Minister of Russia Pavel Sorokin. According to him, the demand for European refineries and gas stations decreased from 63-70% in April to 40-60% now, compared to the same periods last year.
an Additional positive added statistics of the energy information Administration US (EIA), which showed that from mid-March oil production in the US decreased by 1.2 million barrels a day, and its reserves in the last week of April was added to 4.59 million barrels – a volume of two times lower than expected.
Another factor which supported the oil market was based on data from China customs about the country’s economic recovery after the epidemics and quarantine restrictions. In comparison with March in April, oil imports by China increased from 9.7 to 10.4 million barrels per day.
in addition, the adjustable production cuts OPEC+, joined by other countries, including the United States and Canada, in may-June will be able to remove from the market of about 15 million barrels a day, that is half or more of excess supply, which is estimated 25-30 million barrels per day. With the OPEC deal+ hope for long-term stabilization of the market, but the impact of it it will be able to provide only in the second half of 2020, not before the supplies are removed will begin to decline.
the Current growth of quotations more related to timid hopes for a recovery in demand, and not with the actual increase in oil consumption. On the background of excess of 25 million barrels per day reduction in US production and increase in oil consumption in China by 700 thousand barrels per day, too little to remedy the situation.
however, there remains a risk of recurrence in mild form of “paper jams” futures now June, the North American WTI. According to the Director of group corporate ratings of an ACRE of Basil Tanurcova, falling of quotations of oil WTI at the time of completion of fixed-term contracts in the current environment it is likely, but not to the extent as happened in April. A similar view was expressed by the analyst in the commodity markets “Opening Broker” Oksana Lukicheva, which said that in the previous 2 weeks, there was an active distribution of positions between contracts of different length (time until 2025). This greatly reduced the risk of recurrence of the failure of prices to negative.
However, in order to pull a Brent crude oil prices to go minus the price of WTI quite optional. Enough will fall to around 10 dollars per barrel or below and the North sea benchmark may lose all of their previous growth.
there are also geopolitical risks. On the background of the retreat of the epidemic in China has resumed disagreements between Washington and Beijing. The US President Donald trump has already allowed the introduction of new duties on Chinese goods, and if his words do not disperse with the case, another risk of a slowdown in major economies of the Asia-Pacific region, put pressure on the quotes of the barrel, which is now not much need to drop a few dollars down.
Most experts agree that the reduction of commodity stocks of oil will start in the 3rd quarter of this year, when the market formed its slight deficiency. After that we can expect rising prices, not backed by hopes and speculations, as it is now, and the real demand for “black gold”. According to Basil Tanurkov, the scale of market recovery will depend on the timing of the lifting of quarantines, the rate of growth of demand, as well as the degree of fulfilment of obligations under the new transaction to reduce production. “Our base scenario assumes a recovery in prices towards the end of the year to 40-45 per barrel of Brent,” said Tanurcov.
Forecast Oksana Lukicheva were more pessimistic. In her opinion, the cost of Brent crude by the end of the year is expected to reach $ 30 per barrel.
