Despite the statements of support agreement on production cuts, the United States officially joined the deal, even at the level of one of the state of Texas that were discussed in April of this year. When oil prices collapsed below $ 30 per barrel are no scenarios, but to reduce the production of shale oil, was not. Production in the U.S. fell from 13 million barrels per day in March to 11.2 million barrels in may. In this case, the forecast of U.S. Department of energy says that by the end of 2020, oil production in the country will amount to 11.6 million barrels a day. An average shale gas production in the US fell to just 1.4 million barrels a day, and we are talking about the largest oil producer in the world. For comparison, only a nominal quota of reduction in the production of Russia and Saudi Arabia accounted for 2.5 million barrels a day in every country.
the Problem is that now from the US are news about the first signs of the recovery of production. “The world price of oil has already reached the level at which some producer of shale oil in the United States can begin to increase production,” says chief strategist at commodity markets Saxo Bank OLE Hansen. In his opinion, the increase of production, the growth of quotations will become the main problem of OPEC members for the entire remaining term of the transaction. The balance gained in the market is very fragile and can break it very easily, he said.
on the other hand, given the technical features of the recovery of oil shale mining, to expect a quick improvement in oil production in the US is not necessary. “In the short term (three to five months) whatever the price, the production of shale oil in the US will continue to decline simply because there is a time lag between the start of drilling and beginning of production, and in recent months, drilling activity in the U.S. has decreased dramatically,” – said Director of corporate ratings ACRA Basil Tanurkov.
the Number of active oil rigs in the U.S. dropped to the 2009 level (206 units), but the stock of unfinished wells, which can be quickly and cheaply to increase production, made in April 7617 pieces. In case of further increase in oil prices, American companies will be able to take advantage of this huge reserve to increase production.
According to Tanurcova, in the long term quotes in the range of 45-50 dollars per barrel will contribute to stabilizing production in the United States. At oil prices of 50-60 dollars per barrel production will grow comparable to the long-term growth in global demand. And the price is much above $ 60 will allow to increase production in the United States at a rate exceeding the growth in world demand, which has become a threat to the market share of OPEC members+.
That is, if quotations of a barrel above $ 50 about��the production in the United States will seriously hamper the efforts of the OPEC+, slowing down the rebalancing of supply and demand, when some of the volumes of oil withdrawn from the world market, will be compensated by increased production in the United States. And with oil prices above $ 60 per barrel, the world will return to 2019, when the main destabilizing factor, which negates the efforts of the parties to the transaction OPEC+, was the success of American oil companies.
Hardly that danger does not understand the parties to the transaction OPEC+. To the price of 50 dollars per barrel, experts predict, the oil may come by the end of this year. “In fact, the challenge of OPEC+ is to provide long-term price level close to 60 dollars, and after review the conditions of reduction of production as part of the deal in the direction of increasing production,” said Tanurcov.
