In particular, we are talking about the possibility of reducing the size of the key rate by the Bank of Russia this Friday by 0.25-0.5 percentage points, which generates extra demand for local debt market, he says.
“Speaking about the impact of oil prices on the ruble, it is necessary to highlight the speculative component and a real threat to the economy and the budget. Speculative factor traditionally more inert, so the pressure on the ruble turns out to be significant but not critical since it is largely “redeemed” the offer of currency from the Central Bank,” – said Evstifeev.
If the price of oil will be low (on the eve of a barrel of Brent fell below $ 16 for the first time since the late 1990-ies), in the near future, the Russian currency could fall to 80 rubles to the dollar, does not preclude the head of strategic analysis and modeling of SMP-Bank Vladimir Fedotov.
If the extremely low oil prices linger, for example, for a month, it will form the fundamental background of the weakening of the ruble, which stop only measures the Bank of Russia will be impossible, emphasizes the analyst. Speech in this case goes about the risks of a full devaluation of the waves by analogy with the 2014-2015 years, he said. If now the slide in oil prices is perceived as a short-term factor, rooting in the minds of investors of the opportunity of ultra-low prices for a quarter or two could trigger the collapse of the ruble, and the realization of such a risk, the dollar / ruble exchange rate may increase to any value, allows for Evstifeev.
