Russian ruble managed to overcome important levels last week. Thursday quotes of the USD / RUB dropped below the 70.6 – the ruble has recovered more than half of the losses since the beginning of year to mid-March. Prior to that, the dollar/ruble dropped under the lower border of the trading range of April and may, which was an additional signal to restore confidence in the markets. EURRUB likewise crossed an imaginary line half rally, noting a decrease to 77.5 on Thursday. In this pair the entire month of may there is a steady downward trend.
However, the events of last week have called into question the sustainability of the recovery of the ruble.
first, the United States has increased political pressure on China. During the week the threats rained down one after the other: from a specific amount of punishment of China for coronavirus (9 trillion dollars) and delisting of Chinese companies from US exchanges to the threat of punishment for its policy towards Hong Kong.
the US withdrawal from the Treaty of Open Skies for Russia, which is also alarmed some investors. However, the strengthening of a quarrel with China by the end of the week the markets could not ignore. World markets went down on Thursday and most of Friday.
Also began to decline in the ruble. Despite the minimal shift of his quotes is Friday, it is necessary to highlight the increase in trading volumes – too many for a two-month growth rate may seem a good moment to buy the currency cheaper. It is possible that the way it is. Apparently, US policy turned their attention to geopolitics as a way to increase their weight before the new stage of the race.
in Addition, more and more clearly manifest an ugly picture of the world economy after the quarantine of the previous months with a significant fall in employment and consumption. Very high chances that the future growth of the stock market will slip or even a possible new twist to decrease. In this way the oil has stalled upon reaching $ 36 a barrel. Markets still run into the “glass ceiling.”
Along with this, the Bank of Russia remains committed to a reduction of the key rate, which also can cool the buyers of the ruble. It is possible that at the beginning of the week USDRUB will try to get back to the range of the previous months, rising above 72,5. EURRUB to this level is a mark of 79.
