Alexander kuptsikevich, FxPro senior analyst, specially for Rossiyskaya Gazeta:
Russian ruble recovers in April after the March storm. Now it seems that the devastating tsunami on the markets is behind us and begins the long restoration work. This may be true, however, market participants will have in the coming months, watch intently, do not grip the banks have money, obeskrovlivaya business, whether large or massive bankruptcies, the behavior of the consumers. From one country to the next phase of coronaries may differ, but all are affected.
Negative on oil prices for some contracts have clearly shown that it can be broken ideas about what is possible and what is not. Major insolvency, slipping with incentives, new flare-UPS can suddenly break the fragile recovery of the financial markets, and to return the wild movements as the stock and commodity and currency market.
still more probable events should be considered a revival of the credit markets, simply because may be it is too early to speak about the devastating effects on the economy. The shaft of the reductions in workforce (not due to the lockdown, and the deterioration of long-term forecasts of revenue) can be formed by the end of summer, and may not be formed. In any case, take time to understand it.
In may, we may see a further careful probing of the new bottom in the courses of the dollar and the Euro against the ruble. After the markets rebound and the strengthening of oil, a couple of “dollar-ruble” can be reduced to 71 of the ruble. In 2015 the area around this level repeatedly stopped the highs of the dollar. Now it may turn into support. A pair of “Euro-ruble” has reached the same point close to 80 rubles. A positive scenario would alleviate some of the pressure on the Euro, the ruble and allow it to remain at these levels. As often happens in crisis, the ruble is drastically falling down, and then a long, careful and fully restores the position.
Under less favourable scenario a couple of “dollar-ruble” is able to rise again above 80 rubles, and the “Euro-ruble” – above 85 rubles. For the second wave, about which so much is said, is not yet ripe conditions. Courses above 100 rubles for the dollar and the Euro it is impossible to completely dismiss the new reality, but expect them in may – was too speculative, that is no reason.
