In recent years, the demand for risk had supported the stabilization of the situation with coronavirus in developed countries due to the stimulus policies of Central banks, specifically the ruble supported a recovery in oil prices, says the head of analytical Department of Bank “St.-Petersburg” Andrey Kadulin.
moreover formed expressed expectations of further easing cycle of monetary policy by the Bank of Russia, in June will make the paper ruble is particularly attractive to investors. From the point of view of the balance of payments growth in oil prices to $ 35 per barrel kompensiruet reduction in the operations of the Central Bank in the foreign exchange market (in may, the Central Bank increased the volume traded on the market currencies when the Urals crude dropping to $ 25 per barrel and below), so in the long term at current oil prices factor in the further strengthening of the exchange rate can only be capital inflows, says Kazulin.
But then factor in the pressure on the ruble may be the decrease in appetite for risky assets, which will result in negative dynamics of whole group of currencies of developing countries, said chief analyst “Promsvyazbank” Bogdan Zvarich.
“the Reasons for such change of attitude of the investors two. The first of these is the continuation of the spread of coronavirus in the world and fears of a second wave of the pandemic, which will have an additional negative impact on the global economy. Plus, continue the growth of tension in relations between the US and China,” – says the analyst. All this casts doubt on a quick global recovery after coronaries.
And investors will prefer assets-shelters in the currencies of the developing countries will dominate sales, Zvarich believes. In this case, the ruble exchange rate in June, may return in the range of 73-75 rubles per dollar, where it consolidated in late April – early may, and towards the end of the month to attempt a breakout of its upper limit, predicts Zvarych. According to Kadulina, in June the ruble should be expected still within 72.5 rubles per dollar.
