Especially for “the Russian newspaper” Peter Pushkarev, chief analyst at TeleTrade, said the reasons for the fall in oil prices at the end of the week, and also outlined the level above which the ruble will be difficult to climb.
– the Rapid the may trend in the strengthening of the ruble at the end of the week, crippled the oil – recalls the expert. – Oil prices slipped sharply back to the corridor with lower technical boundary at 33.5 per barrel and with the upper ceiling is now around 35 dollars per barrel.
Sales are in part caused by the desire of speculative funds to lock in profit from the previous oil growth before the long weekend. Monday will be a nonworking day in the United States, where the Day of Remembrance, as well as in Britain, where the position of the spring Bank holiday. And in Muslim countries – began the Eid al-Fitr.
However, a deeper reason for the interrupted growth of the oil are still too high at this month’s expectations for a recovery in fuel demand. This gives reason to think that a major bottom on the pair dollar/ruble we either have seen in the area of 70.7 per ruble, or it can be somewhere nearby. For example, close to the level of 69 rubles per dollar. It is unlikely we will see the dollar lower.
to Reach these levels, the ruble is now able to help a weakening of the dollar against a basket of other currencies. But at the moment the investors ‘ exit from the dollar in world markets, on the contrary stopped. And again not too powerful, but the strengthening U.S. dollar.
In these conditions, Friday’s dollar rebound to around 72 rubles looks natural. And its logical continuation in the next few days could be the return of the dollar/ruble in the former range from 73 to 75.5. The Euro once again would be appropriate then to marks above 80 rubles. Possible movement of the Euro/ruble in the opposite direction, due to the support zone near 76.5 ruble.
these findings suggests and concluded purchase of the Russian currency to pay taxes. May 25 will be for the Russian oil the last day of payment of the severance tax. A record 170 billion rubles was collected on Wednesday may 20 on placements of OFZ Russian Ministry of Finance. High demand for bonds of the public debt of the Russian Federation helped the ruble to rise, but it is unknown whether collected similar amounts in subsequent auctions.
So while the ruble is more logical at least to take in the growth of a pause, if only in the balance of power will not suddenly intervene the rise of the us stock indices S&P500 and the Nasdaq to new heights. It is very possible. But more likely that will happen in June.
