Scientific Director of hydrometeorological centre Roman Vilfand has deciphered for us made at yesterday’s meeting with President Putin the idea that we are waiting for “the hottest summer in history.”
on Monday, the Meteorologist said that the current year may be the hottest in the last 5 years. Later, the head of the Ministry reported about the increased risk of fires due to abnormal temperature. However, the scientific Director of the hydrometeorological Roman Vilfand said that in the projections is no mention of extreme temperatures next summer.
the Forecast is based on calculations by the world meteorological Association, the Hydrometeorological services of the United States and Russia. According to the 2020 year can really become the hottest in the last 5 years, but your contribution has made the average global temperature in January, which was a record high for the whole observation period (about 130 years), and the temperature in February and March, which was in second place after the warmest 2016.
Increased fire danger also not related to predictions about abnormal heat — the reason here was winter with little snow in most areas of the country. Due to the lack of heavy snow cover the sun too soon began to dry up devoid of moisture the soil. So in may in the Asian country, far East, South and West Siberia can ignite fires.
in addition, according to the calculations of weather forecasters in early summer in both South and North regions of the country will be formed anticyclones. If appropriate to the anticyclone cloudless weather delayed more than 10 days in a row, especially in the Northern regions known phenomenon of white nights with the midnight sun will create very favorable conditions for fires 4th and 5th classes of hazard.
According to the probabilistic forecast of Roshydromet from April to September, the temperature in Moscow may exceed the norm in August. In the same month, Muscovites can expect more heavy rains. At the same time, Roman Vilfand notes that the probability of such a development – only 60%, and to predict how the temperature will be above normal by 1 or 5 degrees is impossible in principle.
the Calculations are based on hydrodynamic predictions, analysing the complex interactions between the ocean, atmosphere, continent. The solution of the equations in this system depends on the accuracy of initial data, which are impossible to predict for a long period. In addition to natural factors, the calculation includes and anthropogenic — the influence of greenhouse gases. If this summer will be to develop the phenomenon of El niño-related warming of the Equatorial waters, this year could be the warmest in the last 100-130 years. But the probability of this is at 25%, another 50% that this will not happen.
the Expert stressed that likelylocal forecasts are primarily prepared for people involved in agriculture to ensure the protection from fires and emergencies. Ordinary people focus on the forecasts for more than 14 days should not have to wait for the heatwave or the repetition of summer 2010 in Moscow.
Even if such phenomena happen again — to say with certainty we will be able not earlier than 14-10 days — said Vilfand.
thus, according to Vilfand, global warming may cause more frequent recurrence of hurricanes, tornadoes and sharp strengthening of a wind in our country. According to a recently published study, summary statistics on tornadoes in Northern Eurasia, most of these phenomena occur in July, in the region of 17-18 hours local time. A hurricane in the waters — in August, in the period from 9 to 13 hours. One of the study’s authors, Alexander Chernokulsky said “MK” in recent years, an increasing frequency of occurrence of events favorable for the occurrence of tornadoes. However, statistics do not show a steady increase in the number of these phenomena.
