the world Meteorological Organization (WMO), the UN stated that in the next five years will increase the likelihood that global temperatures will rise by more than 1.5 °C compared to pre-industrial levels. The WMO estimates a 20% probability that this threshold will be overcome by 2024. In predictions 2015, the probability of this was estimated at 10%.
This is significantly higher than that recorded in the Paris climate agreement. The evaluation takes into account the natural variability of natural phenomena, and the impact of carbon emissions as a result of human activity. However, this model does not take into account the reduction of CO2 emissions caused by the coronavirus pandemic, says the BBC. According to the researchers, the simulation shows the difficult task of level control of climate change, which will have soon to face the global community.
“the WMO has repeatedly stressed that the slowdown of industrial and economic development during a pandemic coronavirus is not a substitute for sustained and coordinated action in the field of climate,” said Professor petteri Taalas, the General Secretary of the organization.
According to him, the inability of the international community to cope with climate change could threaten the well-being of people, ecosystems and the economy for centuries. He stressed the need for significant carbon emission reductions to prevent “long-term transition to more dangerous and warm the world.”
Recall that the Paris agreement of 2015 has set the world leaders defined goals. They pledged to make efforts in order to prevent warming of more than 1.5 degrees in this century. According to experts, the new model suggests that this level may not be breached until the end of the century, and in the next few years, although the probability is estimated as one to five. Experts Express concern about the rapid pace of climate warming: for example, the average temperature on the planet has more than one degree Celsius higher than in 1850-ies.
Some parts of the world will feel global warming more than others. Scientists say that this year in the Arctic is probably the average temperature will be two times higher than the world average, which will lead to a massive melting of the ice. They also predict that in the next five years in Western Europe will be more storms due to rising sea levels.
