Russia cannot compensate for losses in its air force, according to an intelligence report. Kiev Mayor Klitschko no longer rules out a blackout in Kyiv and calls for preparations. All current voices and developments on the Ukraine war can be found in the ticker.
More on the course of the war in Ukraine.
Monday, November 7, 9:17 a.m.: According to British intelligence experts, Russia cannot make up for the loss of aircraft in the war of aggression in Ukraine. “Russian aircraft losses arguably far exceed their ability to produce new airframes,” said the UK Defense Ministry’s daily update on the Ukraine war on Monday. The long time it takes to train competent pilots also reduces Moscow’s ability to regenerate its air force capabilities.
According to Ukrainian sources, Russian forces have already lost 278 aircraft since the invasion began – twice as many as in Afghanistan, according to the British. “We cannot verify these numbers, but the continued lack of Russian air superiority is likely compounded by poor training, the loss of experienced crews, and increased risks from close air support in tightly meshed anti-aircraft zones,” the statement said. That will probably not change in the coming months.
3:18 p.m .: According to the “Institute for the Study of War” (ISW), shelling by its own soldiers is responsible for up to 60 percent of Russian losses since mid-May. That’s what the commander of the pro-Russian separatists in Donetsk, Aleksandr Khodakovsky, said yesterday.
The ISW does not rule out that the numbers are exaggerated – but analyzes that the mere fact that something like this is being discussed publicly already reveals deeper problems within the Russian military. Poor communication and coordination are cited as examples.
1:44 p.m .: According to British intelligence experts, Russia is trying to shift the responsibility for the poor performance of its invasion troops in Ukraine onto commanders. Reports about the renewed replacement of a high-ranking Russian officer speak for this. “If confirmed, this joins a series of sackings of top Russian commanders since the invasion began in February 2022,” the UK Defense Ministry’s daily Ukraine War Intelligence Update said on Saturday. “This may be partly an attempt to shield Russian leaders at home and deflect blame,” the statement continued.
The British Ministry of Defense has published daily information on the course of the war since the start of the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine. The government wants to counter the Russian portrayal and keep allies in line. Moscow accuses London of a disinformation campaign.
Sunday, November 6, 11:30 a.m.: Due to the damage to the energy system, Kiev Mayor Vitali Klitschko does not rule out a collapse in the electricity, heat and water supply in the Ukrainian capital. The citizens should stock up for such a case and also consider temporarily staying outside of the city. Klitschko said so on Saturday night on Ukrainian television.
This is the worst possible scenario. “We’re doing everything we can to make sure it doesn’t come to that,” he said. “But we want to be frank: Our enemies are doing everything to ensure that this city is without heating, without electricity, without water supply – in general: that we all die.”
About three million people are currently living in Kyiv, including 350,000 internally displaced persons from other parts of Ukraine, Klitschko said. If the district heating system collapses, the city is preparing to set up 1,000 warming rooms. The administration even went so far as to evacuate the city completely in the event of a blackout, the New York Times newspaper reported.
Former world boxing champion Klitschko accused Russian President Vladimir Putin of wanting to destroy the Ukrainians as a people. “Putin doesn’t need us Ukrainians. He needs the area, needs a Ukraine without us.” The Russian rocket attacks on Ukraine’s energy supply also damaged the facilities in Kyiv. The city is trying to stabilize the grid through staggered power cuts. Whole districts have no light for hours at a time.
Saturday, November 5, 3:12 p.m.: For several weeks, the Ukrainian army has been slowly but surely advancing on Kherson. The Russian side has already withdrawn personnel from there – and announced it so big that political scientist Markus Kaim from the German Science and Politics Foundation suspects a trap.
Speaking to “Ntv” Kaim said: “For ten, fourteen days we have been hearing from the Ukrainian side that they are preparing to take Kherson. I’m still a little reluctant because the Russian side’s announcement of its withdrawal is so inviting that one almost gets the impression that the Russians want to set a trap,” Kaim analyses. “The fact that Cherson is being offered on a silver platter should make Ukraine suspicious.”
The political scientist has a suspicion: “There are voices from Kyiv that Russia wants to involve the Ukrainian armed forces in street fights. That seems more like the right reading to me.”
5:45 p.m .: To support Ukraine in its defense against the Russian attackers, the United States is providing the country with additional military aid worth 400 million US dollars. This was announced by the US Department of Defense on Friday in Washington. US military support for Kyiv has thus totaled $18.9 billion since US President Joe Biden took office in early 2021. According to the Pentagon, most of the weapons and equipment – $18.2 billion – have been delivered dollars – pledged since the Russian invasion at the end of February.
The new package included 45 refurbished Soviet-designed T-72 main battle tanks, Pentagon Deputy spokeswoman Sabrina Singh said. The tanks come from the Czech Republic. The Netherlands, in turn, also provided 45 tanks of this type. In total, 90 T-72 main battle tanks would be delivered to Ukraine. The trilateral agreement with the Czech Republic and the Netherlands on the delivery of the T-72 tanks is a direct result of the deliberations of the so-called international Ukraine contact group, through which arms deliveries to the country are coordinated.
Singh said Ukraine was familiar with Soviet-designed tanks. On the other hand, introducing a new main battle tank to the battlefield would be extremely expensive, difficult and a great challenge for the Ukrainian troops. Some of the T-72 tanks should be delivered before the end of the year, with the rest in the new year.
The spokeswoman also announced that the US was establishing a “Ukraine Security Assistance Group” at its Wiesbaden location to further coordinate long-term support for Kyiv. This is subordinate to the European US command.
1.30 p.m .: Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a law allowing the mobilization of serious criminals. The RIA news agency reports on Friday, as Reuters reports. The law excludes those convicted of child sexual abuse, treason, espionage or terrorism, according to RIA.
1:25 p.m .: Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev insulted the Russians who fled on Telegram. In view of the partial mobilization, a number of Russians have left the country. “Cowardly traitors and greedy defectors have fled to distant lands – may their bones rot abroad,” writes Medvedev on his Telegram channel.
“We were abandoned by some frightened partners – who cares,” Medvedev said, emphasizing that Russia would be “stronger and cleaner” without the citizens who fled.
1:05 p.m .: Thanks to an international fundraiser, the Ukrainian army is getting 60 armored personnel carriers from old British stock. This was announced by the foundation of the prominent Ukrainian TV presenter Serhiy Prytula. The aim of the campaign since Wednesday was to collect the equivalent of 5.4 million euros for 50 FV103 Spartan tracked vehicles. On Thursday evening, Prytula reported on Twitter that the goal had been exceeded. “No one will conquer our nation because we are Ukrainians!” he wrote.
11:59 a.m .: The Federal Constitutional Court has rejected an urgent application against German arms deliveries to Ukraine. It was directed against the corresponding resolutions of the Federal Government and the Bundestag, as the court announced. However, the applicants did not state that a future constitutional complaint could have a chance of success. The court did not reveal who made the application.
Friday. November 4, 10:55 a.m.: Germany and China are pushing for a rapid de-escalation in the Russian war against Ukraine. “President Xi and I agree: nuclear threats are irresponsible and extremely dangerous,” said Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) after talks with the Chinese leadership in Beijing on Friday. He told Chinese President Xi Jinping “that it is important for China to exert its influence on Russia.”
At a joint press conference with Scholz, Chinese Prime Minister Li Keqiang distanced himself unusually clearly from the war: “We can no longer afford any further escalation,” he said. It is now time to “urge both sides to engage in peace talks,” Li said. “We do not want regional stability to be shaken, international production and supply chains to be destabilized,” he added. “We don’t want to see that.”
China has so far avoided openly criticizing Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. The People’s Republic maintains close contacts with Russia, trade has increased significantly since the beginning of the war – for example, China is buying more Russian oil that the West is no longer buying.
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