After hosting the German chancellor, Vladimir Putin, Russian President, stated that Moscow was open to talks with NATO and the United States on issues such as military transparency and missile deployment limits.
Putin’s Tuesday statement added to the signs of decreasing tensions due to a Russian military buildup in Ukraine and fears about an invasion. Hours earlier, Russia declared that units involved in military exercises would be returning to their bases.
However, U.S. President Joe Biden stated that the U.S. has not confirmed Russia’s claims and that an invasion is still possible. Although he stated that the U.S. would use diplomacy to stop a Russian invasion and that it would do so “every opportunity”, he was skeptical about Moscow’s intentions.
Many questions remain about Russia’s intentions and how the crisis will unfold.
Here are some examples of what is happening and why.
WHAT HAPPENS WITH RUSSIAN TROOPS
Russia’s Defense Ministry stated that units involved in exercises would be returning to their bases. It wasn’t immediately known where these troops were stationed or how many were going.
This announcement was made a day after Western officials claimed that some military hardware and forces were moving towards the Ukrainian border. Russia denies any plans for invasion of Ukraine. However, it placed troops at the borders to the south, north and west and held major exercises.
Biden stated that 150,000 Russian troops are currently positioned near Ukraine and Belarus. This is an increase on the earlier U.S. estimate, which was 130,000 troops.
HOW DO OTHERS VIEW THAT?
In Moscow, Olaf Scholz, the German Chancellor, said that Putin was speaking alongside him. “That we now hear that some troops are being pulled is in any event a positive signal and we hope that more will follow.”
Scholz did not say whether Germany had evidence that a troop withdrawal was actually taking place.
Ukraine’s leaders expressed skepticism while others were also cautious.
Dmytro Kuleba, Ukrainian Foreign Minister, stated that Russia makes many statements. “That’s why the rule is: We won’t believe what we hear, but we’ll believe what we see. We’ll believe de-escalation when we see troops withdrawing.”
Gabriel Attal, spokesperson for the French government, stated that France wanted to confirm information regarding Russian troop movements. He would also speak “carefully”.
“But, if confirmed that’s obviously good. This would signal de-escalation which we have been calling out for for many weeks. Attal stated that this would confirm our right to restart dialogue. Emmanuel Macron, the French president, met Putin in Moscow last week. He spoke to Biden on Tuesday.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated that “so far we haven’t seen any de-escalation in the ground, and not seen any signs of reduced Russian military presence at the borders of Ukraine.”
Stoltenberg stated that Russia has been known to move into countries like Belarus with equipment and troops, but then pulled back, leaving behind military material for later use. NATO would like to see a “significant, enduring withdrawal of troops, forces, and heavy equipment”
Stoltenberg stated that there is “some grounds to be cautious optimistic” about diplomatic efforts, given the signals from Moscow.
Boris Johnson, British Prime Minister, stated that Russia sends “mixed signals.”
Johnson stated that “we are seeing Russian openness for conversations.” Johnson spoke after meeting with his government’s COBRA crisis panel. On the other hand, we still don’t see enough intelligence.
According to him, Russia continues to build Belarusian field hospitals near the Ukrainian border. This “can only possibly be construed in preparation for an invasion.”
WHAT DOES PUTIN SAY?
After his talks with Scholz, Putin observed that the U.S. & NATO had rejected Moscow’s request to keep Ukraine and other exSoviet countries out of NATO, stop weapons deployments near Russian borders, and to reduce alliance forces from Eastern Europe.
The U.S. and NATO reached an agreement to discuss security measures that Russia had proposed previously.
Putin stated that Russia is open to talks about limiting Europe’s deployment of intermediate-range missiles, transparency in drills, and other confidence-building steps. He reiterated that the West must listen to Russia’s main demands.
WHAT ELSE IS GOING ON AT THE DIPLOMATIC FRONT?
Zbigniew Rau, Poland’s foreign minister, met Lavrov in Moscow. Rau is currently the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) chair. Rau stated that the OSCE offered multilateral talks to ease tensions.
The Ukrainian foreign minister hosted his Italian counterpart. Fumio Kishida, the Japanese Prime Minister, said that he had conveyed to Zelenskyy through a telephone call Japan’s strong support of diplomatic efforts and sanctions on Russia in the event of aggression.
WHAT DO WE KNOW OF THE LATEST CYBERATTACKS?
According to Ukrainian authorities, a series of cyberattacks took down the websites of the Ukrainian army and defense ministry on Tuesday.
Still, there was no indication the relatively low-level distributed-denial-of-service attacks might be a smokescreen for more serious and damaging cyber mischief.
Minimum 10 Ukrainian websites could not be reached, including the Defense Ministry, Foreign Ministry, Culture Ministry, and Ukraine’s two largest State Banks.
According to the Center for Strategic Communications and Information Security of Ukraine’s Information Ministry, Russia may have been behind the attacks. Cyberattacks are often difficult to attribute quickly because aggressors often hide their tracks.
The Russian cyber-aggression has continued to feed on Ukraine.
WHAT HAS THE U.S. SENSATE TO SAY?
Senate leaders made a rare bipartisan agreement Tuesday, expressing solidarity with Ukraine and warning Russia that it would be paying a “severe penalty” for invading.
Both parties’ senators have tried to unite behind the U.S. They decided to abandon their own sanctions legislation and not to reach an agreement on the timing or scope of the legislation. Instead, they opted to follow the White House’s strategy to pull Russia out of the crisis.
“In this dark hour,” 12 Democratic and Republican senators stated, they wanted to ensure that the strong U.S. position was clear for the people of Ukraine as well as Putin.
What do Russian Lawmakers Want?
Russian lawmakers urged Putin to recognize the rebel-held territories in eastern Ukraine, which are self-proclaimed Donetsk or Luhansk people’s republics. Tuesday’s vote by the Russian State Duma (the lower house of parliament) was to send an appeal to Putin in this regard, which was earlier made by Russia’s Communist Party.
Kyiv isn’t fulfilling the Minsk Agreements, which were mediated by France and Germany in an attempt to bring peace to eastern Ukraine. Vyacheslav Volodin, State Duma speaker, stated that “our citizens, compatriots, and those who live in Donbas need support and help” via the Telegram messaging app.
Volodin stated that the document would be submitted to Putin immediately.
Putin stated that the motion was a reflection of the concern of the Russian public about the situation in eastern Ukraine. However, he noted that Russia still believes that the 2015 peace agreement brokered by France & Germany should be the main vehicle to resolve disputes over eastern Ukraine.
Scholz stated that a process to strengthen the agreement should be supported by all and not held back by anyone.
Scholz said, “Of course,” if the resolution that the Russian parliament approved today becomes a reality, it would be a violation of the Minsk Agreement.” “I believe all parties know that… then this process would be stopped and ended, which would be a political disaster.”
MOSCOW: WHAT IS THE FEELING?
The U.S. warned that Russia could invade Ukraine at any moment, but the drumbeat of war is almost unheard here in Moscow. There, pundits as well as ordinary Russian citizens don’t expect Putin’s attack on Russia’s ex Soviet neighbor.
The Kremlin has dismissed U.S. warnings about an imminent attack as “hysteria” and “absurdity”; many Russians believe Washington is intentionally inciting panic and inciting tensions to provoke a conflict.
Putin’s rage about NATO’s plans for Russia’s expansion and its refusal to listen to Moscow’s concerns have struck a chord with the general public. It taps into a feeling of betrayal and suspicion of Western designs after the Cold War.
