To many observers, the war between Russia and Ukraine appears like a battle between David and Goliath. The renowned US historian Timothy Snyder has now examined the conflict based on seven factors – and has come to a conclusion that Vladimir Putin is unlikely to like.
For Timothy Snyder, author and professor of history at the famous Yale University, Russia is about to lose the war in Ukraine. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is not only a crime, but also a mistake. Admitting this mistake is difficult, especially for Putin, whose power rests on his image as a strong man: “In this war, Russia has reached the phase in which it is fighting because it would be embarrassing not to fight,” writes the US -Historian on his blog “Thinking about”.
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He believes it is likely that the Ukrainians will now be able to muster the necessary momentum on the battlefield to hold their own against Putin’s army. While wars are unpredictable, Snyder believes Ukraine will most likely win. As evidence for his thesis, the US expert analyzes seven war factors that are decisive for the course of armed conflicts.
Time is of the essence for Russia, as Putin initially counted on a quick victory. “If there is no quick victory and the enemy is not humiliated, then time will prevail due to the unforeseen factors,” said Snyder. After all, the longer a war lasts, the more the benefits that a great power like Russia seems to have dwindle.
Russia is a much larger economy than Ukraine, which is why sanctions against Russia will soon have an impact, Snyder predicts. The sanctions would hurt, especially if the Ukrainian army began to show a technological superiority that Russia could not keep up with without sanctioned imports. After all, Ukraine is supported by the American and European economic powerhouses, which can clearly outshine Russia.
“For the economy to make the difference, governments (particularly those in Berlin) must be prepared to use their economic power creatively and swiftly in ways that would be inappropriate in peacetime,” writes the US historian. According to Snyder, Germany in particular must prove that it can produce and deliver artillery pieces and shells on schedule.
Snyder writes that Ukraine has a clear advantage in terms of logistics: It is waging the war on its own territory. Soldiers and ammunition would therefore not have to be transported over long distances. At the beginning of the war, when Russia invaded from Belarus, Russian logistics were catastrophic, Snyder notes. The situation for the Russian army is currently better in the Donbass, since eastern Ukraine borders on Russia and southern Ukraine can be reached from Crimea, which is controlled by Russia. “But these connections can be challenged and even broken with the right weapons,” Snyder says.
For Snyder, topographical conditions are also decisive for the further course of the war. “I can’t help but note that in May and June, when Ukraine failed to deploy a large number of long-range weapons obtained from partners, Russia was barely able to take advantage of the comparatively favorable terrain of south-eastern Ukraine,” he writes US historian.
Western arms shipments would now give Ukraine an advantage. In addition, the hills and forests would now give the Russians in the north a hard time. According to Snyder, there are hardly any obstacles for the Russian soldiers in the southeast of the country, but Russia has made very slow progress. The supply of arms from the West would now bring additional dynamism to the war.
According to Snyder, Russian soldiers prefer to fight from a distance: “Russian warfare depends on artillery, on killing at long range”. So far, Russia has had an advantage due to more artillery pieces and shells. However, the character of the war will change now that Ukraine is receiving more accurate, longer-range weapons, Snyder said.
If Ukraine continues to receive the right weapons from the West, it may soon be able to dictate the war, Snyder writes. He thinks a slow Russian retreat is likely because they are not good fighters in close combat.
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In contrast to the Ukrainians, the Russians could withdraw to their homeland at any time, the US historian continues. He has the impression that many Russian soldiers are not particularly motivated and do not really know why they are in Ukraine. Even if the Russian leadership does not appear to care about the fallen soldiers, the deployed soldiers in Ukraine themselves have an interest in returning alive, Snyder analyses.
The Ukrainians, on the other hand, have nowhere else to go because Putin is openly threatening the country with his extermination, writes the US expert. “They know exactly what they are fighting for.” This is another moral advantage for Ukraine.
From the start, the Russian invasion was based on Putin’s flawed notion that the Ukrainian people would embrace his destruction and greet Russian soldiers as “brothers,” Snyder writes. “The Ukrainian nation and state have been transformed by this war, but not in a way that benefits Russia.”
According to Snyder, Russia’s current plan envisages destroying the Ukrainian economy, terrorizing the civilian population with rocket attacks and cutting off energy supplies to Europe. By blocking food exports, Putin would make Africa and Asia suffer. He concludes: “A large part of the Russian strategy for the war in Ukraine is to establish a one-country blockade of the world.”
On the other hand, the Ukrainian plan seems to be to secure the country’s physical and social existence and launch counterattacks to retake occupied territories. The reconquest could break the residual image of Russian invincibility, writes Snyder. At this point in time, Ukraine’s goals are much more conclusive for the US expert.
For Snyder, the war has shown that Ukraine is far more resilient and viable than many assumed. In his opinion, the country is capable of winning this war. Russia’s only way to victory is to convince the West that Ukraine cannot win. The war would only end when Putin realized that his personal situation was threatened by defeat, writes the US expert. “All we have to do is see things as they are, show some patience and support the democracy that is under attack – with the right attitude and the right weapons,” Snyder said.
