According to the International Monetary Fund, the war in Ukraine will “severely slow down” global economic recovery. The UK is more affected than others.
International bodies expect to see a slowdown in global growth due to rising fuel and food prices as a result of the conflict.
It also reduced its global forecast, and downgraded its outlook on the UK.
It says that the UK will not be the fastest-growing economy in the G7 group, which includes leading Western countries, and it will be the slowest in 2023.
According to the body, UK growth will slow due to price pressures leading households to reduce spending while rising interest rates will “cool investment”.
Now, the UK’s economy is expected to grow by 3.7% in 2018, down from 4.7% predicted in January.
Next year, however, the UK will experience the slowest growth across Europe’s major economies and the G7 at 1.2%. This is nearly half the 2.3% previously expected. The UK’s 2023 figure is the slowest, except for Russia which is heavily sanctioned in the larger G20 grouping that includes countries such as China and India.
‘Major shock’
The IMF works together with its 189 members to stabilize the global economy. This includes issuing short-term loans to help countries that are in trouble and providing assistance.
It stated that inflation is now a “clear, present danger” in many countries. The situation has also increased supply strains due to the coronavirus pandemic.
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, IMF director for research, wrote that the world had experienced another major, transformative shock in just a few weeks. This was according to the 2022 World Economic Outlook.
“Just as an insurmountable recovery from the global pandemic-induced economic collapse seemed possible, war has made it very likely that many of the recent gains may be lost.”
According to the organisation, global growth is expected to be 3.6% in 2018, a decrease of almost 1% from its forecast prior war.
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The World Bank stated that it would lower its growth forecasts from 4.1% to 3.2%.
Conflict has already caused economic havoc in Russia and Ukraine. The West, following the invasion, cut off key financial and trade networks to the West.
According to the IMF, Ukraine faces a severe contraction of at least 35% this year. Russia’s economy will shrink by 8.5%.
The IMF warned that Russia, a major energy producer and key supplier to staples like wheat and corn, will have far-reaching consequences.
