first, dividend payments are expected to be lower than a year earlier, that is said to reduce the risks of pressure on the ruble, they said. Secondly, the Ministry of Finance through the Bank of Russia continued to sell the currency on the market in July, is expected to be sold for about $ 1.5 billion, and we can expect that sales will continue, at least in August-September, expect Orlov and Kiyutsevskaya.
Finally, a greater possibility of capital inflows associated with an increase in placements on the Russian debt market – the growing needs of the Ministry of Finance in borrowing can attract more foreign investors, especially if they improve relative to emerging markets.
According to analysts of alpha Bank, there is scope for some strengthening of the ruble in the third quarter of 2020, potentially to the level of 65 rubles per dollar. By the end of the year, the ruble exchange rate could reach 67 rubles to the dollar, as geopolitical risk premium of investing in Russia could increase after November 2020 (when presidential elections will be held in the USA). Current market anxiety about the risk of sanctions is the first sign that this subject may again return to the market, I think Orlov and Kiyutsevskaya.
