Even a cursory glance from the window is enough to understand – how the world has changed around us. Almost futuristic landscapes, instead of busy streets can see only skeletons of buildings and bridges where there are no people, no cars. Towns and villages were deserted, almost the entire planet at the same time. And ahead – a deeper and more global changes, which have yet to comprehend.
We noticed that since the end of 1980–ies the world economy developed not only at the expense of traditional sectors. The main driver of change became the nature of man. Of a man consumed gradually due to the opening of the borders for the different kind of contacts (cultural, sports, political, social), the “crown of nature” turned into human communication how to call a new type of people Alexander Safonov, doctor of economic Sciences, Deputy rector of the Financial University under the government of the Russian Federation. Many traditional values, for example, property, good clothes, private cars have become, in his opinion, to recede into the background. And came to the forefront of impressions and emotions.
the rupture of communications today takes the most painful. And jobs that provide those services (catering, cultural and recreational organizations, sports, etc.) was under threat of destruction. And it’s not just about GDP and money, it’s also about feeling the quality of life of the people!
Therefore, look not effective enough measures to overcome the crisis yesterday or the day before yesterday in connection with spread in the world of coronavirus infection, which coincided with the collapse of oil prices and the jump in the exchange rates of national currencies. All this showed the vulnerability of many economies and the systemic problems in their regulation by the state.
But nevertheless, experience is experience and it should not be forgotten. In this regard, of great interest is the comparison of the measures taken in the world today with the constraints that were used in the early 20th century (1918 – 2020) during the outbreak of Spanish influenza or “Spanish flu” – which is considered the most massive pandemic of influenza with a high level of zarahemla and deaths.
can’t not to draw attention to the fact that the spread of novel coronavirus infection has occurred after 100 years since the Spanish flu pandemic. By the way, for the doubters of the seriousness and danger of the current infection, “Spanish flu” for two years, were infected from 20 to 30 percent of the world’s population, and the number of deaths was estimated from 30 to 50 million people. Of course, this had to do largely with the low level of development of the health system, the wars of the early 20th century, inadequate and timely measures.
However, in this period, most people also wore masks, ��was organizovyvaet tracking sick and those who are with them in contact, the definition of the rules of self-isolation, dissemination of information about the virus. Was introduced severe measures to limit, up to a total ban of transport communication with other countries and inside the country. Almost a year and a half has closed a number of organizations (theaters, schools, libraries), and in some countries martial law was imposed. That is used almost all the measures that are introduced and at the present time. Despite the fact that now digital technology allows us more “comfortable” to spend time in isolation and solve a number of operational and domestic issues remotely.
Among the features of financial-economic consequences of Spanish influenza can be called in the first place, labour shortages and the need to increase wages, which subsequently led to a sharp increase in demand and supply in the market of goods and services, that is, to run the economy. In addition, it was the beginning of the technological revolution, was a reorganization of technological and sectoral structure of the economy.
But what really was important for the preservation and further development of the economy after the pandemic “Spanish flu” is minimal regulation of private organizations and various branches of the state. Organizations and the public were given the opportunity to work, earn money and “make” money. The economy is “released”. This does not mean lack of control by the state. But it was implemented mainly for the strategically important sectors, but otherwise was minimal.
In the tax system of several countries with higher economic growth, was observed more stimulating function of taxes than fiscal. Taxes were reduced and some abolished. Certain categories of citizens and organizations generally exempt from tax. This factor, in particular, contributed to the growth of welfare of citizens and States in General.
Some experts say that we must learn to live in the “new reality” and divide the world economy into “before” and “after” of coronavirus. In our opinion, this is not a correct statement. The “new reality” is merely the crisis, which is temporary, albeit protracted, if the analogy with the Spanish flu. Worst of all not even the fact that we are now living in this “crisis,” and the fact that we have our own experts offer you it to settle.
What are constant complaints about the need of abandoning fundamental social rights. For example, the weakening of the safeguards contained in the labour law or social security law. Yes, every crisis reveals problems, but it is a reason to remove them, not a reason for refusal of obligations.
the current crisis and internally restrictive measures are not a completely new phenomenon that never happened in the history of mankind and of the world economy. The current fall in oil prices is also not something new and fatal to the economy of different countries, including Russia.
But, as we have noted, there are a number of significant features associated mainly with technological unemployment, a high level of regulation of the economy by the state and excessive control, fierce competition in the labour market and the growth of poverty.
Now the majority of workers and employers are wondering how to continue working, to live and on what? Usually, they ask them yourself first, and then the state. Because the welfare of their sharply reduced, they do not see solutions to their problems in the short term, and measures of state support – real, not declared, is not enough. Because most don’t notice, frankly.
In these conditions it is important to understand how to change the structure of the economy and employment, which is a kind of indicators that are responsive to the changing internal and external environment. So, it is the level of needs of economy in personnel in the near future will be significantly reduced. The rapid development of digital technology and increasing automation of production processes, inevitably leads to a decline in the share of human labor. Many companies also expect to reduce due to the increase in the number of “self-employed” population.
in short, the structure of the economy will result in the displacement of traditional markets of goods and services, as well as private industries, a sharp reduction in the number of subjects of small and medium-sized businesses.
In these conditions, the biggest risk is a surge of poverty. In order to avoid this, according to Valery Tsvetkov, a corresponding member of RAS, Director of Institute of market problems, Russian Academy of Sciences, the state should go to the measures of direct support workers and employers, which include both direct cash payments and full exemption from some taxes. And debt relief, including taxes for certain categories of citizens and organizations, as practiced today in many countries.
All these measures must be taken in parallel with the sharp decline of economic regulation by the state, ensuring the availability of loans, subsidies and the provision of certain “financial freedom” in the calculations between the organisations and citizens. The only way we can protect our economy from stagnation and collapse, and a population from slipping into poverty and chaos.
