Coronavirus to suspend the decline of Putin’s ratings. It is customary for a crisis situation “the effect of rallying around the flag”. At such moments, the frightened citizens renounce claims to the authorities and try to close to him to cuddle. After the fear will pass, the decline is likely to resume, especially given the fact that the country is in crisis, unemployment, rising prices and poverty. But what it will not do is feeling of the term. Because the regime is well known and no illusions about it, no one left. And then there’s the “amendment Tereshkova”, abdoulaya all hope for change.
Any analyst will tell you that the strength of leader’s position depends on two components. The first is the attitude of the mass of voters, the second – his status among the elite. Between these things there is a link, therefore weaknesses in one you can compensate the expense of another. Decline in popularity in the nation – by strengthening its position in the ruling establishment. It is well known that no matter how discontented “lower classes”, without allies in the “top” no successful revolution is not complete. A split in the elites is the most important condition that determines the chances of the rebels to win. Once American political scientist Karl Deutsch wrote, saying that a key condition of stability of the authoritarian regime is not the presence of a powerful army able to crush the rebellion, not the effectiveness of the government propaganda machine, and “the ability to maintain cohesion and unity of decision-makers, in terms of escalating political, social or economic situation.” The Creator of the theory of elites of Gaetano Mosca stated it more simply: “Consistently and uniformly operating people win thousands, between which there is no consent.”
still extremely divided on all other issues of the Russian elite against Putin showed the most cohesion and uniformity. Even the sanctions invented specifically in order to turn them away from the President in this sense has not worked. However, not the fact that all of this forever. In the end, such a high status of Putin’s elites is not due so much to his own merits as the story of his ascent to Olympus. Unlike the rulers that made their way to the throne themselves, acquiring in the process of moving military colleagues, Putin was lifted up leaving Yeltsin and anyone who subsequently surrounded himself, obliged the throne was not. Accordingly, none of those who made up the new Russian elite, for the status of kingmaker they could not qualify – on the contrary, they have Putin. He is the rags to riches pulled.
the President, however, knows the country’s history and aware of the fact that Khrushchev, for example, retired people, many – if not all – he in this life are required. So that the current status quo is likely to change.
That could become a starting point? Just a drop of Putin’s ratings. Revolt against the ruler is a dangerous thing and decide it may be the only one who assumes that a critical mass of people will support it. The decline in the popularity of the regime, obviously, is in this sense a key indicator. As Machiavelli wrote: “of all the ways to prevent the conspiracy of the surest – not to be hated by the people. Because the conspirator always count on the fact that the murder of the Emperor will please people; if he knows that he will outrage the people, he doesn’t have the balls to go to such a thing”. The removal of Khrushchev was organized only after a sharp decline of its popularity. Unsuccessful epic corn and two years of crop failures forced the Soviet government to sharply raise food prices. This was the strongest increase since the end of the war. The uprising in Novocherkassk was the most striking episode of the period, but in fact the unrest and open demonstrations of discontent on a smaller scale then recorded a lot. It is no coincidence that hastily assembled Plenum, which sent the Secretary General in retirement, was devoted to agrarian reform.
In General, when you have falling rates of people love need to fear not only the mass protests, but also conspiracies in their own environment. Illegal removal from office, when authoritarianism is not uncommon. Yale University Professor Milovan Svolik estimated that among dictators, who ruled from 1946 to 2008, about two-thirds lost power as a result of those or other unconstitutional action. Two thirds of them were overthrown by their own elites.
In the case of Putin we still, of course, it is hard to imagine a classic coup. Therefore, cleaning of the elites he did not need so much in order to get rid of the potential of the conspirators, many other reasons. Sensing the weakening of the position of the head of state, the elites can start forming their own coalitions, thereby limiting the freedom the presidential maneuver. In addition, gradually expanding the space for their games, sooner or later they will start to work with the voter – this was the norm in the 90s And this is a real risk. Not only the coup in the strict sense of the word, and the electoral defeat of the “orange” scenario, which is known, usually after the election and implemented.
Gradually, step by step, the figure of Putin desacralized. In such circumstances float to the top carefully masked until the time of the claim. It should be understood that the unpopularity of the leader – an essential condition for its displacement, but it is rarely the real reason, pobugdusa elite to action. In the case of Khrushchev, for example, as the last made course on HR updates, and numerous administrative reforms and other actions by the nomenklatura perceived as a threat. In a situation with Putin this reason, too, is – at least theoretically. It’s his conflict with the West. The elites want to be integrated into it. In nice and Geneva they are more comfortable than in Russia. It is enough to see where they lived and invested members of Putin’s Politburo and the most vociferous propagandists of the regime in the days when they had a choice. Yes, now that they have no choice and they are forced to hang around in Russia. And what will happen when they see that the normalization of relations with the West possible?.. And suddenly they decide to act? Putin is a cautious man and not inclined to underestimate the risks.
there is still one argument, the last on the line, but not the last value. The sources from which the President may be popular, close to exhaustion. Foreign policy and Patriotic rhetoric to tired of people, of economic success and rising standards of living are not expected. It’s one thing to carry the boyars beard in the hope that this sight again, as in the old days, will delight the Russian people.
In General, the prerequisites to sweep the elites have and it is important to understand their possible logic. In addition to those who are with him openly clashed, Stalin, for example, in the first place was to get rid of the heads, which had its own well developed network of patron-client relations. It was enough for you to have self – depends only on you Empire and you got a pencil. As soon as you started too zealously the interests of this Empire to defend – showing that you really have together with her and her care for you more important than others – and in front of your name was put bold cross. A typical example is the Chairman of the Uzbek Council of people’s Commissars of the Faizulla Khodjaev. He tried to resist Moscow’s demands to increase the area given for planting of cotton, and began to prove that Uzbekistan needs a more balanced structure of agriculture. Imagines that he really needs to protect the interests of his region, Khodzhaev was accused of “bourgeois nationalism” and executed. In the end, consolidation of power is not so much positive action to strengthen their influence as a negative effect – the destruction of alternative centers of attraction.
the Next thing you can assume about the logic of cleansing is something to get rid of in the first place it will be necessary from those who does not collide with anyone and tries to be friends with all. Influential member of team anti – rating-the potential center consolidation and the leader of the conspirators. This is how it was for Khrushchev to Brezhnev.
For cleansing the right reason. StAlin, for example, used as such by the murder of Kirov. Coronavirus is also nice. Identified in the course of the epidemic the inefficiency of the power structures can be used for cutting heads at the Federal level and in the regions. The latter because, in any case, it will be necessary to bring in a sense – not much imagined about unexpectedly fallen on their authority. Yes, and the people approve. After the regions can be taken and for the feds – the good, the first is closely tied with the second-and most Governor’s offices up in Moscow to pull the strings. Them and it will be possible to unravel.
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In General, personalist regimes are characterized by a high degree of rotation of elites. We must pay tribute to Putin, he in this sense is the exception. Elite when it is stable. If you don’t support the opposition and not in conflict with the security forces, you can feel safe. Flinch at night, hearing the noise entering the yard of machines, is not necessary. The overthrow of the Politburo from Olympus under Putin until now has been rare. Vladimir Yakunin, Viktor Cherkesov, Viktor Ivanov, perhaps Dmitry Medvedev – examples are rare.
And, nevertheless, everything changes. Some signs of possible thunderstorms are already visible. For example, the composition of the new government. Office mishustina – the first in which none of Putin’s old friends. So no personal attachment. Hence, do not be sorry.
