Russian ruble effectively resists the pressure of sellers against the Euro and the dollar noticeable stabilization after a weak end of July that could escalate into retaliation of the ruble. If global markets manage to avoid a significant deterioration in sentiment, the ruble fully able to develop the rebound in the coming weeks.
six weeks to the end of July, the ruble has been subject to severe pressure, being technically oversold. This is especially expressed in the quotations EURRUB, which for the third time in history rose above 87, but failed to gain a foothold above. Full correction is able to send EURRUB to 80 in the next two months. But this will only be possible with a relatively negative for the dollar scenario, precluding his recovery in the coming days and weeks. A more cautious can be considered as predictions for the roll back just below 85 this week and further feeling for the local “bottom”.
news for oil-producing industry also on the side of the Russian currency. Data last week indicated a decrease (albeit small) production, despite growth of quotations, as well as the drop in the number of working drilling rigs in the United States to new historical lows.
in Parallel, Russia increases since August oil production in connection with the planned easing of quotas. That is, at the same time increased the price and volume of sale – a rare positive combination in recent years. The price of gas also rose sharply on the stock exchange in July, further confirming the positive signals to the oil market.
Also against the ruble should cease to act, such one-time factors such as conversion and dividends. In addition, it seems that sentiment on the rouble is already back sanctions risks, makes the Russian currency indifferent to the news on this subject in the coming weeks.
Among the risk factors for the ruble’s excessive weakening of the dollar in previous weeks. As in the situation with the ruble, the sellers seem to have gone too far, forming a space for rollback. However, the persistent demand for the dollar is bad news for the commodity and stock markets around the world.
If the correction will grow into a strong sale, the USD / RUB pair may go up to test levels of 80 to the dollar in the next two months. A more conservative scenario measured correction of the dollar implies an increase by 75 USDRUB and subsequent consolidation at this level.
