Especially for “the Russian newspaper” Sergey Drozdov, an analyst CC “FINAM”, outlined the main positive aspects for the financial market. He also said that risks to the ruble.
Investors are looking forward to the global lifting of the quarantine, – said the expert. – Japan has lifted the state of emergency. Germany after June 15, plans to lift restrictions on travel to EU countries and the Schengen area. And in the UK from 15 June will open stores selling clothing, shoes, toys, furniture, books and electronics, but also Studio, photo Studio, indoor markets and auction houses.
But main growth drivers of world stock exchanges are the actions of major Central banks, blusih in markets around $ 5 trillion. Assessment of Bank of America Merrill Lynch, at the end of may, the balance of major world regulators have reached $ 25 trillion, and by the end of 2020 could reach 28 trillion.
In turn, the Bank’s experts forecast continued additional injections of liquidity from the Bank of Japan, Bank of England, the ECB and the fed.
However, despite the optimism of investors, the main risk for financial markets can become strained relations between the US and China. It threatens to turn into another trade conflict between the two largest economies in the world.
According to Bloomberg, the administration trump is considering a range of sanctions against Chinese officials, businesses and financial institutions. And if this scenario comes to fruition, in addition to the decline in world stock indices, the correction will be and oil prices stopped their rapid growth near the mark of $ 37 per barrel.
At the moment the attention of the players in the oil market has shifted to the impending OPEC meeting, at which will be discussed further at the fate of the deal to reduce oil production. And now the discontent of the market makes Russia’s intention to begin to increase oil production from July, as foreseen by the agreement reached in April.
the Russian currency played due to the positive dynamics of prices for oil and the support of the Bank of Russia a large part of the losses incurred in March and April, at this stage, has suspended its strengthening at the level of 70,60 per dollar. She claims to be a local limit ruble appreciation.
risk-based correction in global financial and commodity platforms, the pair dollar/ruble until the end of this week may hold in the range 70,60-73, tending to its upper bound.
