Especially for “the Russian newspaper” Peter Pushkarev, chief analyst at Teletrade, assessed the prospects of the ruble in the case of the renewal of the restrictive measures in Russia.
– Fact extension of the quarantine will add to the woes of the ruble, – says the expert. – Yes, a long regime of forced isolation fatal porubit the roots of some of the enterprises of small and average business. However, when such things affected the attractiveness of the OFZ Finance Ministry, on the weakness or strength of the ruble as a currency for savings or payments?
economic Growth of the last three years have been weak demand depressed. And it does not interfere with the government successfully and sometimes with excitement at auctions, place new paper tens of billions of rubles. And economic stagnation all the year 2019 did not prevent the ruble to strengthen.
However, the expert is not sure that the ruble will continue to strengthen. In the first half of the week, the dollar is unlikely to fall again to around 72.7 ruble or below.
More likely that it will beat in the area of highs of the environment April 15, which were located on level 75.3 ruble. And from a further weakening of the ruble was defended in that day only auction of Finance, where the government has placed obligations of Russia in the amount of almost 97 billion rubles. But if the same money is not received, the dollar will test the strength of the zone of resistance at 77-78 rubles.
Follow markets to test specifically the lower or the upper boundary of the corridor depends on the news from the United States. Where is Donald trump one of the first Western leaders announced a truly bold program of removing rigid quarantine in three stages for gradual opening of the us economy.
If his plan works, it will draw the bottom of the economic crisis. And will encourage stock exchange. The first reaction index is the S&P500 and Nasdaq have already been growth. And investors tend to place money in developing markets, including Russia, but only with a steady upward trend on the stock exchanges.
But the idea of trump is not yet approved by many state governors. They are mostly the Democratic party – not too and wishing that the economy has time to recover for the fall election. They don’t want to give Trump another trump to voters. If he economy will overcome the powerful stress, people will be able to return to work, and exchanges to increase.
Though trump declared that he is the President, has the right to enter and remove universal quarantine, the American political reality is not so simple. The governors strongly depends, will it all be implemented.
next week will decide who wins in the tug of war: the trump or the governors. So investors will be every day from USA any changes. And the stock markets, the dollar and the ruble will sync them to wobble. Earlier opening the US economy would be an important example for Europe, which will begin later to try the American model of release from quarantine on themselves.
with regard to the Euro/ruble, then it will move in the footsteps of the dollar/ruble wide corridor from 78 to 84 rubles. If only the contradictions in the branches of the U.S. government, a fresh statistics of a pandemic or other causes not sharply worsen the situation on the stock exchanges.