Especially for “the Russian newspaper” Sergey Drozdov, an analyst CC “FINAM”, was apprised of the situation and prospects of the ruble in September:
– in Spite of the favorable conditions prevailing in global financial and commodity markets, – described the situation the expert – the Russian currency to the middle of this week ceased to respond to universal positive, bubbling primarily on overseas stock markets.
So, last Wednesday the American index of wide market S&P500 renewed its historical high, set in “decolonializing” February. Only the oldest and the Dow still remains slightly below its February peak.
currently, despite the still incomplete story of the pandemic COVID-19, markets supported by virtually free money the world’s leading Central banks, not without reason, continue to rely on the recovery of the global economy. And finally wrote off the year 2020 from the accounts.
according to the index Global PMI composite, in July business activity in the world’s major economies against the background of increased business due to the cancellation of quarantine measures showed a significant increase. The price of reference Brent are above $ 45 per barrel.
Support oil quotations have released positive data from the US Department of energy, according to which crude oil inventories for the week ended the seventh of August, fell by 4.5 million barrels. A strategic reserve of “black gold” in the country decreased by 2.2 million barrels to 653,9 million barrels.
However, the ruble seems superfluous at this celebration of life. And its course for the most part form the internal history. One of these is a failed auction the Ministry of Finance on placement of OFZ. It did not take place last Wednesday, because there was no bids acceptable to the Ministry of Finance prices.
From this we can conclude that in the short term, the pair dollar/ruble will be clamped in the range 72,70-74. And with the change of sentiment in global financial markets cannot be ruled out retesting of the attempts of mark 74,68.
Then, after a traditionally difficult for the Russian currency in August, the ruble in early September, can play a significant part of the losses and make the attempt to go in the corridor 70,50-72,30. It will happen amid expectations that the Bank of Russia will complete the softening of monetary policy.
