Especially for “the Russian newspaper” Anna Bodrov, a senior analyst at IAC “Alpari”, summed up the spring and gave an Outlook on the ruble by the end of may:
– at Least this spring for the ruble fell on March 19 and mark 81,97 per dollar. The maximum was 3 Mar – 65,30 per dollar. It is seen that the amplitude of the fluctuations of the ruble too serious, but the reason will agree that this was very unusual, – said the expert. Since the beginning of the year, the ruble depreciated against the dollar by just over 16 percent.
That’s a lot, but the domestic currency is not exactly the leader of the list of outsiders among the currencies of emerging economies.
so, what we have of the significant factors at the end of may and spring? First of all, the balance in the oil. Almost a month as OPEC+ executes the agreement on additional decrease in the daily pumping of raw materials, and Russia it definitely should. The joint efforts of the excess raw deals in the world should fall by about 10 million barrels from the current 18-20 million barrels per day. Full image this picture is not correct, but it certainly stabilizes.
a Barrel of Brent may consolidate in the end of the month within 30-35 dollars, and it will be good. Even assuming that Russia will continue to reduce the daily production of raw materials and will reach 8.5 million barrels per day. This is the minimum for more than ten years, but the budget will still be able to replenish. Importantly, Urals does not fall sharply.
the end of the month, the traditional period for the payment of taxes in Russia, and that logically supports the ruble. Exporters sell the proceeds and buy rubles for repayment of tax liabilities. Factor short-term and local, but it is.
this week, on Wednesdays, as usual, the Treasury will have time to hold another auction on placement of OFZ. The previous two have been extremely successful and have shown the interest of investors to risk. This time, the world situation itself is quite smooth. Which allows to count on stable demand for bonds and, therefore, support the ruble.
in Other words, it is now “Russian” in equilibrium. Stronger ruble in the near future is unlikely. In the end, it is not necessary neither the budget nor the exporters or domestic producers. But to maintain stability it can easily. Dollar until the end of may will remain in the range of 71 to 74 rubles, Euro under 77,50-80,50 roubles, – the expert concludes.
