Last week was the worst for the greenback since the beginning of summer. The DXY index — the dollar against six leading currencies, fell to values of September 2018. Steps large-scale monetary stimulus in the U.S. and rising uncertainty before the presidential elections contribute to the game against the us currency. However, the positions of the ruble, it does not add hardness — domestic demand for foreign currency from importers and non-residents, converting the dividend continues to grow.At the end of the week the exchange rate of the American currency on the world market has updated two-year minimum. According to Reuters, during Friday’s trading index DXY (a dollar exchange rate concerning six currencies) down to the level of 94,41 points, the lowest level since September 28, 2018. Since the beginning of the week, the index has lost more than 1.6%, the worst weekly result for the last two months. The depreciation of the U.S. dollar had a positive impact on the value of gold, the price of which for the first time since the beginning of September 2011 rose above the level of $1900 per Troy ounce. In the course of trading Friday, according to Reuters, the quotes reached the level of $1906 per ounce, 5% higher than the beginning of the week and almost 26% higher year to date.The depreciation of the dollar contributes to the expansion of monetary stimulus by the US authorities to support the economy. By mid-year, their volume was estimated in excess of $6.4 trillion. Last week CNBC announced that the Republicans consider the possibility of extending supplementary unemployment benefits of $400 per week until the end of the year. Currently, the allowance is $600 per week, but the program is calculated till the end of July. According to the Director of the Department of financial markets operations of the Bank “Russian standard” Maxim Tymoshenko, the fed continues to pursue expansionary policy amid uncertain economic recovery prospects.Affects the preference of investors and the approach of elections of the President of the United States. In the presidential race Republican Donald trump is ahead of Democrat Joe Biden, which is regarded by the market as negative scenario. “The Democrats coming to power is a less preferred scenario for the markets, as in the case of tax and regulatory exemptions may be withdrawn, as has been repeatedly stated their candidate,”— said the head of analytical Department of Bank “Zenith” Vladimir Evstifeev.In such circumstances, international investors with great interest look at the European currency. According to Bloomberg, since the beginning of the week, the Euro and the pound sterling rose against the dollar 1.5%, the Swiss franc 1.6%. According to the chief analyst of ROSBANK Eugene Koshelev, the situation develops under the influence of political success in the EU: the creation of a common Fund assistance in the amount of €750 billion is the first sign of obra��unit fiscal Union. An important nuance of the new plan of economic aid was the fact that for the first time it is funded by the joint commitments of the EU countries. “This step could boost the Euro as an international reserve currency, thanks to the emergence of new liquid risk-free debt along with U.S. Treasury bonds that attracted Euro financial speculators caused the observed in July a sharp strengthening of the single European currency”,— says senior analyst “Discovery Research” Alexei Tikhonov.However, not all currencies could strengthen the position. In particular, the laggard last week was the Russian ruble. During yesterday’s trading the dollar rose on the Moscow stock exchange up to 72 RUB/$, and by the end of the main trading closed near $ 71,83 RUB/$, which is 35 kopecks. above the closing Thursday and by 2 kopecks below the close of last week. The Euro rose for the week by 1.36. and for the first time since April 21, fixed above level 83 RUB/€, completing the basic trading at around 83,56 RUB/€.The weakness of the Russian currency caused by both speculative and fundamental factors. In the past months support the ruble had the influx of capital in the BFL, but as the completion of the cycle to reduce the key rate of the Central Bank interest in the carry trade is reduced. “The new easing in monetary policy probably will not cause a positive reaction on the local debt market”,— said Vladimir Evstifeev. Moreover, as noted by Alexei Tikhonov, the pressure on the ruble have a seasonal increase in demand for foreign currency on the background of dividend payments and the gradual recovery of imports. The largest Russian companies pay dividends in the amount of 2 trillion rubles, of which non-residents have 500-550 billion rubles According to Mr. Evstifeeva, the amount of conversion can make 300-400 billion rubles (us$4.2–5.6 billion). “This will put pressure on the ruble until the middle of August,”— said the expert.Vitaly Gaydayev
