But it was not a local anomaly. On the vast territory of Eastern Siberia heat lasted more than a month, which is absolutely unusual for these places. What happened? The answer was looking for a group of scientists from Russia, UK, Netherlands, Germany, France and Switzerland.
from January to April over the North pole was located in the area of abnormally low pressure, – told “RG” one of the participants of the international expert group, doctor of physical-mathematical Sciences Olga Zolina. – This led to a chain of other abnormal events. Winter temperatures in the Arctic and North-Eastern Siberia was significantly higher than usual. As a result, has weakened high-pressure system, which is traditionally formed. And from the beginning of June began a reverse process: to replace the low pressure in these areas began to come high.
But whether the cause of these anomalies of human-caused global warming? Or, as its opponents claim, it’s all a natural course of events. Similar phenomena allegedly already happened on the planet.
Our group has used various mathematical models to analyze the climate situation in Eastern Siberia, including the Verkhoyansk, says Zolina. – On these models compared the climate, which is observed today, so that would be here without human influence. That is separated anthropogenic impacts from natural variability. The evaluation showed that global warming increased the likelihood of a long and abnormally warm periods in the first half of 2020 by approximately 600 times.
Actually, according to Zolina, the heat waves usually occur in the region extremely rarely – once every 130 years. And don’t be anthropogenic forcing, the anomaly could arise, but would not record. The influence of anthropogenic factor was decisive.
the Scientists note that the Arctic, which is called the “weather kitchen”, a region for the planet special. Many waterways cyclones, storms and hurricanes. Now the Arctic is warming about two times faster than the rest of the planet, and is a champion of global warming. This causes a variety of natural disasters, for example, in the mid-latitudes of Europe. The fact that the climate depends essentially on the transport of air masses from the Atlantic, from West to East. Because of warming in the Arctic the temperature gradient between the pole and the tropics decreases, and therefore the reduced transfer of air from the Atlantic and intensified the flows from the South and North. What makes the climate capricious.
with regard to Verkhoyansk, then, apparently, the temperature record is far from the last. According to scientists, if the climate will change as rapidly as it is today, in Siberia, in 2050 the average temperature could 5-7 degrees higher than in 1900. A special danger lies in the melting of permafrost, and STEMI the rate of increase.
it is estimated that in the canadian and Russian taiga “canned” and a half trillion tons of carbon dioxide, which is 40 times more of the world’s total emissions for the year. The release of these reserves can accelerate the onset of global warming. One of the study’s authors, Professor Sonia Seneviratne, says that we have little time to keep the climate within the framework of the Paris agreement. It is necessary to reduce CO2 emissions by at least half by 2030.
recently, However, there are more scenarios that are skeptical about the ability of modern society to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to comply with the terms of the Paris agreement. But it draws a lot of apocalyptic paintings of the near future. And the phenomenon in Verhojansk only adds them in the dark paint.
