with In the pandemic that swept our planet, humanity will face other problems and with new criminal challenges. The extent of these challenges are also global and will touch virtually all countries studied by the experts of the International police Association. This organization includes more than half a million people from 70 countries on all continents who are engaged not only law enforcement issues but also cooperation between police from different countries in solving many common to all, the humanitarian problems.
Russian section of the International police Association is headed by a Lieutenant-General, doctor of law, Professor, honored lawyer of Russia Yuri Zhdanov.
He said, "Rossiyskaya Gazeta", as the pandemic took advantage of the international organized crime.
battle for human capital
a Yuri, on the idea of a pandemic, when the overlap of the borders and limited movement within countries, must create some difficulties for the crime. In fact, the population is taken under total control, including the police. And almost voluntary. How indeed?
Yury Zhdanov: actually – and so and not so. If it is very simplistic, it can be reduced petty crime, such as street. But the income of major crime, organized and international – could increase dramatically.
but don’t realize the connection – because "big bosses" always feed from the extraction of fine artists?
Yury Zhdanov: experts from the international research centers believe that the various restrictive measures to reduce, for example, migration and smuggling business in the short term. But they can lead to increased profits smuggling industry in the medium term.
Pandemic COVID-19 able, the crime rate among illegal migrants bring to hypertrophic proportions
There are the usual laws of legal business. Political environment in many States is becoming more hostile to migration.
Therefore, operational risks and prices for smuggling rise. It displaces market with disparate criminal operators with lower risk appetites. Their place is taken by larger players – organized criminal groups that use migrants to obtain greater profits.
a Whom war and to whom mother is native. What is extracted from the profit and what is its approximate value?
Yury Zhdanov: first of all the profit is extracted from the migrants themselves – the people paid to deliver them to any country that they think is more favorable. Accurate data on the percentage of illegal migrants use the services of smugglers, do not exist. But it is increasingly recognized that, for example, most and�� million migrants in the countries of the European Union, have used the services of smugglers.
So, in 2017, the international organization for migration has estimated that the shadow economy around migrants is estimated at 10 billion US dollars a year.
But Interpol and Europol called the smuggling of migrants is the fastest growing criminal market in many regions and stated that this trend will continue. Moreover, control over COVID-19 can only increase the number of incentives for migration.
a That is some small smugglers can no longer comfortably work in tougher conditions, when dramatically increased security requirements. And forced to go under the "roof" organized crime groups, which have more opportunities to negotiate with the officials?
Yury Zhdanov: Yes, and OPG act as service providers when, for a fee, help migrants to cross borders and overcome barriers, which may be geographical, political or cultural. And the more difficult to overcome such a barrier, the higher the price of services.
national threat
but it Turns out that organized crime will influence the formation of social, national and religious character of the population of many countries, including European?
Yury Zhdanov: are Already affected. As a rule, illegal movement of people – depending on the region – corruption industry. It addresses major issues of national security associated with the ability of the ruling party or ruling group to remain legitimate in the public consciousness.
but It means that the problem is beyond the scope of the confrontation "offender – police"? And the virus is a threat not only to the health and lives of people, but also the very existence of the state?
Yury Zhdanov: Yes, COVID-19 poses three risks to the States in the areas of health, economy and stability of the state. Improper management the first two areas increases the likelihood and severity of social unrest and affect the third – the risk of social instability. The possibility of social protest means that COVID-19 poses a threat to the ability of the ruling elite to maintain the ability to control the situation.
a But the ruling elite can’t understand?
Yury Zhdanov: They understand it. Coming really principled fight against corruption. Complicity at a high level in the smuggling of migrants or irresponsible attitude to this problem will probably disappear in the short term. And for the lower ranks of the power structures will increase the risks to be the most harshly punished for any corruption in the migration sphere.
a Probably, and the public is not happy about the influx of potentially infected outsiders?
Yury Zhdanov: Many employees si��oriented structures comply with the power plant for the fight against smuggling of migrants from a desire to protect their communities from infection. So, the authorities of El Salvador combine closures and measures of successful community mobilization to identify and report any people who enter the country illegally. They are hunted down not only the superstructure but also the initiative group of the population, check and quarantine.
In Libya, where in recent years most strongly was the widespread smuggling of migrants, municipalities took the decision unilaterally to close their communities from illegal migration, urged the military to increase the number of patrols in the period of the pandemic.
the Crime from the ghetto
a will Not cause a pandemic, the outflow of migrants from new countries of residence?
Yury Zhdanov: Already did. Millions of migrants in European reception centres and camps highly vulnerable to the virus. Self-isolation is impossible for them because of the high density and poor sanitary conditions. Most of the world’s experts on migration predicts that migration landscape after COVID-19 will be characterized by the widespread lack of livelihood and unprecedented unemployment.
Some States have enacted harsh measures to break up the concentration of migrants. Turkey, for example, devastated and burned the informal camps that grew up around Pazarkule, the border crossing on the border with Greece.
So COVID-19 will exacerbate the pre-existing crisis economic problems in the countries of origin and countries of transit.
but in Addition to the risk of infection than ordinary people threatened by the explosion of illegal migration? We have all heard of household, street crime among refugees from Asia and Africa, not to mention the terrorists.
Yury Zhdanov: there is also a separate problem, which also threatens national security in many States. There is a real threat of a possible pandemic and postpandemic explosion of migration crime. The office on drugs and crime, United Nations, Interpol, Europol and international research centers believe that the law enforcement agencies of all countries, where there are enclaves of refugees, displaced persons, labour and illegal migrants, needs to prepare for the surge in criminal activity. Such predictions are logically based on retrospective analysis of crime, migrants and ethnic crime in the countries – EU members.
but do You mean mass rape in Germany?
Yury Zhdanov: the indigenous Germans in the memory of the chaos that gave migrants in new year’s eve 2016 in Cologne and other German cities, when the wave of beatings, arson and rape W��NSIN go unpunished. The events in Cologne 650 women have filed sexual violence, it was opened 290 criminal cases, charges were brought against 52 Algerian and Moroccan migrants. However, until the court reached 43 cases in which convicted three migrants, two of which are conditional. In 2017 more than 40 thousand Germans were victims of crimes committed by migrants. And in 2018 the share of migrants, who make up 9% of the population in Germany accounted for a third of all accused of committing crimes.
a Hard to be a German…
Yury Zhdanov: And not only German. Residents of Britain can not without a shudder to recall after more than 16 years (from 1997 to 2013 !!!) horror in the town of Rotherham, where a gang of pedophiles-Pakistanis with impunity, raping little white British girls. The investigation was carried out on 1400 children torn to pieces.
And in Sweden the situation has reached the point that within a few years the police were forbidden to indicate signs of criminals in the media, not to offend any of the migrants with reference to racial, ethnic and religious background of the criminals. As a result of this policy, in 2020 and in the period of the pandemic the police Union city of malmö has appealed to the media asking for the public protection police officers from the gangs of migrants that threaten to destroy their families, in the case that the police will actively fight crime with migrants. While Swedish scientists found that living in their country, migrants from North Africa 23 times more likely to commit rape than native Swedes. In addition, it was found that 90% of all crimes involving firearms in Sweden made the same migrants.
a Excessive tolerance, apparently, is not conducive to the fight against ethnic crime.
Yury Zhdanov: Notice that all the "charms" crime of migrants occurred in a calm, well-fed dependenices years. Pandemic COVID-19 is capable of these ominous trends to bring to hypertrophic proportions.
And the inaction of the police of European States so far has been due to the policy of multiculturalism and a fear to offend the leaders of ethnic communities with their "biased" repressive actions against the migrants. And these leaders, as a rule, simultaneously are themselves the leaders of a powerful mafia clans.
May decrease petty crime, such as street. But the income of major crime, organized and international – could increase dramatically.
Curiously, no sooner had the criminologists of Germany and Sweden to publish research about the real picture of crime migrants, as here, was harshly criticized by liberal politicians and serving them "experts" about the tensions around the issue of criminality of migrants.
a Creatures��em any hope that this threat will cope?
Yury Zhdanov: Now leading politicians justifiably pose the problem of preventing illegal migration and criminality of migrants a priority in promoting global and national security for each individual state.
