the OECD, which unites developed countries, was unexpectedly pessimistic against the background of similar IMF, world Bank and other institutions. The OECD assumes that the prices of basic goods will remain at the lows of April, and that Brent on average for the year will cost $ 30 per barrel. While the OECD has prepared a forecast, a stock price tag rose to $ 40 per barrel, the average price during the first months of this year was estimated to be about $ 30.
That is the worst case scenario at this point in serious doubt, the Chairman of the Board of “freedom Finance” Gennady Salic. He believes the OECD overly conservative: even if the current oil prices, the economic decline in Russia in 2020 will exceed 5%. According to the forecast of Ministry of economic development, it will make it 5% if the main restrictions imposed in connection with the virus, will be lifted in August-September.
the World’s GDP, according to the OECD, will drop 6% if the pandemic will continue to fade, and 7.6% in the second wave in the fall. A severe blow was given not only to the suppliers of raw materials (for which the closure of entire industries due to a virus superimposed collapse of oil), but also the countries with a developed sector of services (tourism, transport, Finance, etc.), directly most strongly affected by social distance. So, in the Eurozone, the OECD expects a decline of 9.1% in the first scenario, and 11.5% in the second wave, and in France, Italy and the UK the decline in GDP could reach 14%. In the US, when the attenuation of the virus, the OECD forecasts a decline of 7.3%, while “double impact” – on 8,5%.
of the major economies of the least deep are expected to decline in China (to 2.6% and 4.9%), where the epidemic began and ended just before where the decline of raw material prices has a beneficial effect on real incomes. However, given the high growth rate of China in “normal” years, the devastating influence COVID-19 it is no less powerful than for other countries.
If the second wave of the virus will not follow, the recovery will be V-shaped, analysts said the OECD: in 2021 global GDP almost reached the pre-crisis level. Moreover, among business and regulators, in contrast, there is a growing understanding that for no reason, some companies just won’t be able to open even after the removal of all restrictions.
In the scenario with the arrival of the second wave of the virus crisis will be much longer: in 2021 the recovery, GDP growth of only 2.8%, the unemployment rate in the OECD will nearly double, reaching 10%. Even with some recovery in 2021 real income in OECD countries will be 10.5% lower than was assumed in projections to the pandemic. The crisis in any case will leave long scars – the decline of living standards, high unemployment and weak investment, the OECD predicts.
