Real disposable income (income adjusted for inflation minus compulsory payments) will be reduced, according to the Ministry’s forecast of 3.8% in 2020 and will be restored to pre-crisis levels within two years – 2021 (growth of 2.8%) and 2022 (2%). While the crisis affected mainly business income, said Reshetnikov. The hardest thing will businesses engaged in the service sector: the Ministry expects that the volume of paid services to the population for the year will decrease by 10%, while the decline in retail turnover will be halved.
the Unemployment rate in 2020 will rise from 4.6% to 5.7% (the number of employed will decrease by 800 thousand people, to 71.7 million), and by 2023 will be reduced to 4.7%.
the Basic variant of the forecast takes into account the government has taken anti-crisis measures to support the population and businesses, and comes from the fact that the main part of the quarantine restrictions will be lifted in August-September. However, it is clear that the restrictions will continue until, until a vaccine COVID-19, said Reshetnikov.
