the Number of infected in Russia has exceeded 500 thousand., however, this does not mean that will overcome the mark of one million patients, according to respondents “known” experts. However, the situation remains difficult because of the decline in the incidence of recorded only in Moscow, in other regions the number of new cases continues to grow.
But the abolition of quarantine measures should not cause surge in the incidence. The main thing — to follow the prevention measures and keep a restriction of the contacts between the regions, experts say.
Russia has reached a new level in the number of infected — a figure exceeded half a million. As of 1 June, recorded 502 436 confirmed diagnoses COVID-19. “Izvestia” learned how the situation will develop in the future and whether there is a risk that the number of infected in Russia will reach one million.
In early may, the Director of research Agency Data Insight Boris Ovchinnikov predicted that the strap 950 thousand cases we will achieve by the beginning of September. However, around may 15, the curve of infections went on a much more upbeat way, and then the expert suggested that a more likely figure is 715 thousand by the beginning of autumn.
But after may 25, the numbers of daily growth was higher than should have been according to the model of gradual attenuation of the epidemic, — told “Izvestia” Boris Ovchinnikov. And the gap only grows — from the point of view of the model now daily increase of patients was to be 6-6,5 thousand (for information on June 11, — +8779. — “News”). However, even at this point, according to my calculations, which one million are infected — according to official statistics — not predicted.
— It allows to hope that million of the infected can be avoided, — said the head of the laboratory of modeling of natural and technological disasters Anastasia Epifanova. — As for coronavirus infections characteristic decline in the summer, we hope for a strong decrease in the growth rate of incidence.
However, the fact that the slowdown in the number of infected is not happening anywhere yet, except for Moscow, makes a critical evaluation of any predictions. And some experts do not agree that doubling the current 500 thousand cases will be avoided.
— since the coronavirus has not disappeared and the pandemic continues, the $ 1 million we will overcome sooner or later — said a senior researcher in the Youth research Institute, St. Petersburg state electrotechnical University LETI Artur Karimov. — If the current rate of growth the number of new cases this threshold can be reached at August-September.
June 8 it was announced that a gradual lifting of quarantine measures in Moscow, other regions also ease restrictions. The news simultaneously excited and alarmed people. On the one hand, again sarabat��et many enterprises will go smoothly, the small business will have the opportunity to spend time in parks and playgrounds. On the other hand, it is unclear how this will affect the incidence. In fact, as previously wrote “Izvestia”, the delay between exposure and getting into the statistics is about 20 days.
Countries that have achieved great success in the suppression of the epidemic, has removed restrictions in a time when recorded a steady drop in the incidence. Especially good results were in the countries, where emphasis was placed on quick testing and identification of patient contacts. Some countries, such as Australia and South Korea, spent hundreds or even thousands of tests each detected case of the disease.
In Russia, to speak of a steady decline in the incidence of early, except, perhaps, Moscow.
— outside the capital, the lifting of restrictions comes amid a steady rise in the incidence, said the associate Professor of the physical faculty of Moscow state University. M. V. Lomonosov Mikhail Tamm. — Noticeable lack in the number of tests conducted, is not carried out serious of actions to improve the detection of contacts. So I think we’re in for what happened in many countries that have adopted the “piecemeal” quarantine measures, then due certain factors have cancelled, without waiting for reducing the incidence, and eventually got a strong surge. Examples of such countries include Peru, Chile, South Africa, the Gulf States, India, etc.
However, according to Artur Karimov, the situation is more complicated: in different countries, the weakening of the constraints is observed as the increase in the incidence and decline. For example, easing restrictions in Europe did not lead to a significant change in the epidemiological situation. At the same time in India, an increasing number of cases of SARS-CoV-2 after the easing of restrictions. In Russia, the negative effect can be avoided, he said.
— it depends on the level of awareness of citizens, their compliance with social distancing and personal hygiene. It is not about clearing the quarantine measures, but only on the resolution of many previously prohibited activities are subject to strict sanitary regulations and possible social distancing: work, restaurants, hairdressers, rendering services at home, educational organizations.
— If at the beginning of may daily increase of cases was more than 1 thousand persons, now — at least 300 (according to the who) — said the expert. — But in Iran, the easing of the quarantine regime occurred in mid-April and has been caused more likely not by the improvement of the epidemiological situation and the threat of economic crisis in the country. This could increase the growth rate of sick��STI (less than 1.2 thousand people a day in late April against more than 3 thousand at the beginning of June, according to the who).
That is the effect of the lifting of quarantine measures is also currently difficult to assess.
it must be noted that Russia is increasing and the percentage of deaths, though not too much — if at the end of April this figure was 0.9%, now 1.3 percent. While about half of the deaths in the capital, but what will happen is difficult to predict.
However, Moscow mayor Sergei Sobyanin believes that the epidemic has begun to decline and deaths from coronavirus in Moscow in June will be much lower. However, as the mayor added, “the fight isn’t over”, and some restrictive aspects (e.g. the wearing of gloves and masks) will be in force for a long period of time.
In particular, it recommended the use of masks while in public areas. Also Elena Malinnikova reported the need to improve their hygiene skills — wash hands frequently with soap and water, keep your distance, use of disposable wipes.
Gradually improve the situation should also test that allows to detect as infected and survivors. In addition, a growing number of drugs to combat disease. In particular, from June 11 to clinics goes produced in Russia, “Favipiravir” under Russian trade name “Avidavit”. The Ministry of health of the Russian Federation registered foreign drug at the end of may, noting that, according to preliminary estimates, its efficiency was about 90%.
However, it should be noted that the removal of restrictions in Russia occurs in stages and depends on the epidemiological situation in each region, which gives hope for a favorable outcome. According to experts, while the contacts between the different regions of the country are limited, there is a possibility that even in the case of surge in the incidence it will be possible to localize.
