According to the Central Bank and the Ministry of labour, by the end of July on the Russian labour market can be fixed by stabilization of the unemployment rate. This is evidenced by both population surveys and monitoring results of these two agencies, respectively otlivami the mood of citizens and their actions. Most workers surveyed by order of the Central Bank, both in the public and in the private sector, expect the restoration of their previously reduced salaries to pre-crisis levels after a few months. A minority of respondents reported returning the same level of income in July.By July on the Russian labor market has significantly reduced the number of layoffs, however, the restoration of salaries to pre-crisis levels will take several more months. Such a conclusion can be drawn from the comparison of the data of the Central Bank, Ministry of labor and the number of studies recruiting companies. We will remind that in connection with the introduction of quarantine and the subsequent suspension of activity, particularly in the services sector, the unemployment rate increased from 4.7% in March to 6.2% in June.As follows from the results of a survey conducted by the “old” order of the Central Bank, in July the unemployment rate in the Russian labor market has stabilized and is likely to remain at the June level. In July to the unemployed themselves 7% of respondents, which is comparable to may and June. The share of unemployed for more than two months increased from the end of April, 6 percentage points — to 11%, and has lost his job less than two months ago — fell by 4 points to 1%. Such changes, the authors of the monitoring indicate a significant reduction in the number of dismissals — says about the same and stable proportion of those who heard about the layoffs of their friends.About the decline in the practice of layoffs is indirectly evidenced by the decrease in the number involved in part-time employment — this indicator records the monitoring of the Ministry of labor on the release and part-time employees. According to this, during the first two weeks of July (more precisely, from 5 to 19 th) Russian companies have reduced the number of employees in a simple almost 10% to 404,2 thousand. 1.7% decrease in the number of employees slated for dismissal, 1.3%, sent on leave without pay. On leave without pay sent 103,8 thousand people (according to July 5, 2020 — 105 thousand people), the dismissal is assumed to be 102 million people (104 thousand), the information office.Amid prospects of improving the situation with unemployment in the relative wage situation in the labour market remains uncertain — including because while estimates of their fall during the quarantine do not represent a single picture. As already earlier wrote “Kommersant” (see July 20), while Rosstat data indicate the growth of real PUATA large and medium-sized enterprises in April-may, alternative employment surveys say the opposite. According to the Bank, with the reduction in payments faced up to 79% of those employed in the public sector and half in the private.Assessment recruitment portal “Work.ru” on average in April, nominal wages fell 6% in may — 8%. Similar data previously reported, and recruiters from HeadHunter on the reduction of payroll on average by one third since the beginning of this crisis, said half of the surveyed companies. At the same time, according to the survey of “old” for the Central Bank, in July all the way to coepidemics level returned income of 6% employees of state enterprises and 21% — private. The majority of those whose earnings have not recovered, optimistic hope for their growth in the next four to six months.Anastasia Manuylova
