the presidential election in Belarus on 9 August Alexander Lukashenko is guaranteed to be declared the winner and the winner, but this is not the kind of “victory”, to which he was accustomed. Over the past quarter century, the Man managed to create an image of the “people’s dictator”: uncouth troublemaker who never gets in high political matters, but is able to move in time with the mood and the Belarusian elite and common people of the Republic. However, in anticipation of the sixth Lukashenko race for the presidency this confident image of the host country is seriously swayed. Batkina inevitable “election victory” will be the same amount of inevitability to carry a tinge of farsopoli in the spirit of the famous anecdote about the report of the Chairman of the Central election Commission: “Mr. President, you scored the least votes, but still won!” This, in turn, create long-term problems not only for Lukashenko, but also for Russia. Moscow runs the risk of once again being in a classic trap in which she has repeatedly visited different countries of the former USSR.
Soon after the Georgian “rose revolution” in 2003, during which the Americans contributed heavily to the overthrow of the obscenely Pro-American President of this country Edward Shevardnadze, one of the then top leaders of the Russian diplomacy has shared with me his perplexity: “I do not understand! Shevardnadze was in Washington is absolutely his own man. Why are they so readily accepted him drown?” At the time I didn’t have a ready answer to the question of my counterpart. But a little later the answer became obvious to all. The Americans have managed to Shine their ability to act on the principle of “they shoot horses”. Once they see that their protégé loses its effectiveness and inevitably moving towards the end of his career, they immediately attributed it to “political scrap” and switch to support the new “fresh horses” — for example, a young, charismatic and promising Mikhail Saakashvili in Georgia 17 years ago.
Russian diplomacy in the former Soviet Union operates on the opposite principle: friends have friends. With all the external dignity of this approach, it has a very significant flaw. At the time of the change of power in a particular Kingdom and we do not just be strapped to “ride a horse”. We are in the same boat with the “horse”, which recalled his old friendship with Russia only at the time when the soil began to leave from under its hooves. So it was with Shevardnadze, who remembered that before she became an obedient tool of America, he was a big man in Moscow. So it was with Yanukovych, enthusiastically Krutov��political intrigues of the West, but suddenly switched to Moscow.
the result of our bet, “friendship” do not need reminding. Recently went to our closest “friends and relatives” Georgia and Ukraine are now firmly entrenched in the anti-Russian political camp. What is happening now in Belarus, in any case is not a carbon copy of what happened in Georgia and Ukraine in the final years of the reign of Eduard Shevardnadze and Viktor Yanukovych. In terms of skill all the limbs to cling to power and cranking the RAM’s horn of political opponents of Alexander Lukashenko stands a few heads above the two “wimps”. But should pay attention not only to what is happening right now, but on emerging sustainable long-term trends. And these trends are at least alarming.
Despite its above-mentioned image of the “people’s dictator”, Lukashenko has always controlled the Belarusian political elite with very harsh police methods. One of the retired major of Minsk officials told me, for example, that during his close work with the President coming to his home, he was regularly there found traces of strangers. Officers of the security services felt no need to hide the fact that they bdyat and satisfied with his searches. However, in the eve of the presidential election of 2020, even these methods of control failed to prevent that by Belarusian standards can be considered as a landmark event. The desire to compete with Mr Lukashenko for the presidency expressed not only accustomed to play the role of extras “professional opposition”, but quite a serious people from the Republican elite.
Yes, these “serious people” immediately turned into frivolous: figuratively speaking, rolled into the asphalt. But should we not consider it the first sign of trouble, a sign that the Belarusian elite is not going to ever tolerate the quirks Farther? However, if this trend is barely outlined, then the other, on the contrary, has long proved himself to his full height. A certain number of years ago any Lukashenka’s statement with harsh criticism of Russia and its leaders will automatically become a sensation. Like, how can this! The closest friend of Moscow — and suddenly such gave! But to date, these “sensations” have become a familiar part of the information landscape. For every kind word Lukashenka about Russia for a long time is five “abusive”.
Perhaps someone in Moscow is counting on the fact that the decline in the legitimacy and strength of the political position of Lukashenka would reduce his freedom of maneuver and increase his dependence on the Kremlin. Even if this calculation is correct, its accuracy is limited by the framework of short or maximum medium prospects. But if you look at your existing tendencies, on the contrary, clearly do not play in our favor. I hope that all of my apprehension is not justified. But the facts — an obstinate thing. Belarus began to slowly but surely drift away from Russia. And all our hopes for the termination of the process associated with losing your resource as a political leader, who is himself the drift and initiated by Alexander Lukashenko.
there is a situation that is paradoxical will not name — only perverted. Moscow at the same time and confronts the old Man, and is his hostage. Of course, Lukashenka himself in a sense was a political hostage of Russia. But me why-that this fact is not comforting. In the strategic plan for Russian-Belarusian relations is something wrong. And I’m afraid that after the “victory” Lukashenko said at the sixth presidential election for him the volume of this “wrong” will only increase.
