the Real incomes of Russians decrease by 9.9 percent by the end of 2020 in the case of strengthening the restrictive measures in connection with the spread of the coronavirus. About this report “Izvestia” with reference to the assessment by rating agencies of an ACRE in the baseline scenario of the updated macroeconomic forecast.
the Agency’s Analysts had developed three scenarios for the development of the economic situation in Russia: basic, optimistic and pessimistic. In all scenarios addresses the problem of the spread of coronavirus to the end of 2020.
If events will develop under the baseline scenario, real incomes of Russians by the end of 2020 will fall by 6.4 per cent, unemployment increased to 6.7 percent, also the prices will increase: 5.2 percent. The pace of GDP will be negative: the figure will drop to 4.5 percent. Analysts also believe that the average dollar exchange rate will be 75.9 per ruble. The Federal budget in 2020 under this scenario predicted a deficit of 5.6 trillion rubles.
Positive scenario involves the abolition of most of the restrictions by June. Under this scenario, by the summer mortality will be reduced, or new tests show that most of the population suffered a coronavirus in mild or asymptomatic form. However, experts believe that the government can resume restrictive measures during the year if the virus will be seasonal. In this case, a partially stored travel bans in Russia and abroad.
the Pessimistic scenario assumes a tightening of restrictions. In this case, it will have a more significant limitation of the services sector. Also in the worst case there may be no vaccine yet for at least two years. In such a situation, the income will fall by 9.9 percent, unemployment increased to 8.9 percent, prices could rise by 7.7 percent. GDP in the pessimistic scenario, will be reduced to 7.5 per cent with the dollar at 86.2 ruble. The budget deficit will reach 8.5 trillion rubles.
