Especially for “the Russian newspaper” Natalia Milchakova, Deputy head of IAC Alpari, said that will affect the ruble in the next two weeks, and named the corridor of his movement at the end of June and the first days of July:
By mid – June in the world there is a growing fear of a second wave of the pandemic Covid-19 due to the growth in the number of people infected with coronavirus in Beijing and the introduction in some areas of the Chinese capital of martial law. These fears, according to the expert, affect the oil market.
Demand for oil in Asian countries and, first and foremost, China is today the main factor supporting oil prices. And they remind, in the USA at the end of April was down even to negative values.
the Second wave of the pandemic, if you will be so strong as not yet gone first can slow down the output of the Chinese economy from the crisis. And accordingly, to prevent the restoration of demand for oil. However, epidemiologists predict that the second wave of the pandemic should be weaker than the previous one. In addition, the positive role played by the hot weather and the success of the Chinese physicians in the development of drugs for the treatment of COVID-19.
We expect the second half of June the price of Brent crude oil will fluctuate within 35-42 dollars per barrel, and the sharp movement of oil prices in any direction will have an impact on the ruble.
We also note that the weakening of the anti-virus restrictions in Moscow and large cities will continue. Since the 23rd of June in Moscow, as announced in city hall, due to open cafes and restaurants (summer verandas are already working with June 16), as well as fitness clubs and swimming pools.
Thus, it can be expected that small and medium businesses will gradually recover from the crisis, will again open jobs and create new jobs. Although the actual results of the resumption of work of many enterprises of small and average business in sphere of services will be visible not earlier than the end of July-August. A new stage in the lifting of restrictions for the economy may create short-term positive backdrop for the ruble.
overall, the second half of June and first days of July the expected dollar exchange rate in the corridor 68-73 of the ruble and the Euro at the level of 76 to 80 rubles.
