Putin and Zelensky talked on the phone — the very fact that such an event is a serious contender for the role of the main news of the day, already says everything you need to know about the state of Russian-Ukrainian relations. This relationship turned into an endless “Groundhog day”.
Conditional on the morning of the day of Kiev and the breakaway republics of Donbass agreed to a ceasefire, and the leaders of Russia and Ukraine — on “real progress” in implementing the Minsk agreements. Conditional on the evening of the same day of all these agreements and good intentions remain in ruins. And the next morning it all starts over again.
Everything just like in the good old American film of the same name? Not really. Stuck in a time loop unlucky weatherman Phil tries to get out of it. But Donbass loops — investigation of conscious collective choice of the Ukrainian political elite. The selection based on its firm conviction: the main thing now is to stall for time.
Remember the saying “what a sober mind, then drunk on language?” So, in Ukrainian politics the role of such a “drunk” for a long time already executes the former President Leonid Kravchuk.
a Few months ago the venerable Leonid Kravchuk invented the fact of the meeting between Stalin and Hitler. And now he accidentally blurted out the meaning of the Ukrainian political strategy in relation to the Donbass and Russia. Quoting an interview with the first leader of independent Ukraine local site “Browser”.
Question: “As you know, the rating of Russian President Vladimir Putin is rapidly falling. The situation is the epidemic of the coronavirus, “Nord stream-2″ and more. Do you think that all these factors can lead to his removal from power?”
Response: “If the situation in Russia continues, Putin is sure to be removed from power or he will leave, or re-elected. But I don’t think it will be soon. Because the Russian voter is stunned Kremlin propaganda. And the main thing for Russians as it was for centuries, and now – “would be native country, and there are no other concerns.” This will work on Putin.”
you Can certainly giggle about the ability of the ex-President of Ukraine simultaneously adhere to two opposing views – “Putin is sure to be ousted” and “Russian voters is stunned Kremlin propaganda”. But from the point of view of the Ukrainian political elite, in this position there are no internal contradictions. Kiev “collective intelligence” is convinced that with Putin to negotiate, but not necessary. At some point in the future the current regime of the Russian President will fold like a house of cards, and the new authorities in Moscow will not be to the Donbass. And then the breakaway “people’s Republic” toRick “we accept, but I’m sorry!” you start to break through the door to mother Ukraine.
In this lie the roots of Groundhog day or as the situation described is new, but already exhausted Russia’s chief negotiator with Ukraine Dmitry Kozak, “theater of the absurd”. Representatives of Kiev are unable to recognize directly: sorry, we do not agree with someone or not, we just pull the rubber! They have to pretend that they are trying their best, but each time fails because of the malice of Moscow and the Donbass.
in Parallel to the official Kiev is trying to destroy the Minsk agreement, which he initially strongly disliked. But there is one subtlety. Hating “marriage Covenant” with every fiber of his soul, leaders of the Ukrainian foreign policy understand that they are in any case can not take responsibility for his formal destruction.
the Logic of this position recently very lucidly explained by experts close to the predecessor Kozak, Vladislav Surkov of the Russian Center of political conjuncture, “the Unilateral withdrawal of Ukraine from Minsk risks to bring down the entire system of sanctions deter Russia, which lined up after the Crimea, and with it the political support to Ukraine from the West, which neither Zelensky nor other Ukrainian politicians can not afford… while us sanctions against Russia can remain intact because of the specificity of relations between Moscow and Washington, with the extension of EU sanctions once problems arise.
European sanctions are extended on the basis of consensus among all members of the European Union and the basis for its extension is precisely the lack of progress in the implementation of the Minsk agreements… If the Minsk agreements will disappear from the table, sanctions consensus can simply be destroyed”.
so, thank you Europe for the fact that Kiev is forced to comply with at least the appearance of decency? If such gratitude, and there is reason, they are very few. The same Europe studiously pretends not to notice how Kiev does not comply with the Minsk agreement. Thus, Ukraine is actually given the green light for the continuation of it is based on the principle of “agree to anything, do nothing” political line.
Almost writing this text, I suddenly noticed that there is very little said about Vladimir Zelensky. But my fault is that? Promising to revolutionize the Ukrainian foreign and domestic policy, Zelensky didn’t just become a President of status quo — successor of Poroshenko. Zelensky, I think, failed even to fully master the levers of control of the Ukrainian government. The impression that the mechanisms of the Ukrainian foreign policy function by themselves on autopilot. And Zelensky is there somewhere Rpoison in the form of a cherry on the cake and only occasionally remembers that he is a President and in theory can manage.
of Course, from Moscow it is difficult to see what is happening in Kiev. Perhaps I underestimate the current leader of Ukraine. But this does not change the overall picture. Promises to the official Kiev is not worth it seriously. Even if another truce in the Donbass suddenly will not “regular” and constant, even it can be considered a miracle. And Ukraine’s implementation of the Minsk agreements at all is beyond reality. Welcome to Groundhog day! However, why welcome? In this day we live for more than five years and will live even do not know how much.
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