Pandemic coronavirus in Russia will end when the number of active cases is zero, meaning that the country will not be a sick person. This can happen around August of this year, under the condition of closed borders until the end of the pandemic in the world and the absence of new outbreaks of the infection, said in an interview with “Parlamentskaya Gazeta”, doctor of biological Sciences, chief researcher of the laboratory of bioinformatics of the First Moscow state medical University named after I. M. Sechenov Nurbubu moldogazieva.
a – Nurbubu Tentieva, may 14 the head of Rospotrebnadzor Anna Popova said that the increase in the number of cases of the new coronavirus in Russia failed to stop, the rate of increase of new infections remains low. Is it really so, according to your observations?
– According to official data, on may 2, 2020, Russia is in the process of overcoming the peak of the curve reflecting the number of daily cases of infection. Now there is a tendency to decrease in daily reported cases of infection, that is, to overcome the peak, and will start in the descending part of the curve. However, as of may 18, we cannot with absolute certainty assert that the peak has already passed. In this comparison the morbidity dynamics in Russia and other countries suggests that the descending part of the curve will be longer and more protracted than rising. In particular, major European countries such as Italy, Germany, Spain and France passed the peak in the number of infections per day from late March to mid-April, more than a month ago, and are now at the bottom of the descending part of the curve. In these countries recorded only from a few hundred to 2 thousand cases of infection per day and the epidemic still had not ended. A more difficult situation in the US and the UK, which for a long time can not overcome the peak and that the curve falls very slowly. Presumably, in Russia the descending part of the curve will last about 5-6 weeks, during which the number of infections will fall and reach a minimum in late June — early July. It is subject to restrictive measures.
a – How to calculate coefficient of infection?
The prevalence of coronavirus infection, the proposed CPS is calculated as the ratio of the total number of infected for the last 4 days to the total number infected during the 4 days preceding them. For example, for the period from may 15 to may 18 in Russia, there were 38 433 cases of infection, and for the previous 4 days from 11 to 14 may 42 557 cases. The prevalence of infection will be 0,9. This is a conditional coefficient conditional values for the removal of restrictive measures. It does not reflect SOS��oanie incidence in the country or region. For example, in Moscow in a month will be recorded, not thousands, but only hundreds of infected in a day and in 4 days their total number may be only 900 people, and for the previous 4 day 1000 (not more than 42 thousand) people. The prevalence of infection will also be equal to 0.9. But the situation with the incidence will be much more prosperous.
a – what data can we understand what the pandemic is over?
The pandemic will end when the number of active cases is zero, then there will not be a sick person, and when the curve is the total number of cases reaches a maximum and stops growing, that is, turns into a flat horizontal line — will reach the so-called plateau. Now among the European countries, only Germany and France, the curve reflecting the number of active cases decreases, and the curve for the total number of cases began to emerge on the plateau. Given the fact that this disease has for a long time, and the recovery period is 3-4 weeks, the epidemic will end after this time after registration of the last case of infection. Presumably, in Russia, the epidemic will end in August. Under the condition of closed borders until the end of the pandemic in the world (during the summer) and the absence of new outbreaks of infection.
