“Advisor to the speaker of the Duma, Pligin declined to comment on the reports that can change Pamfilova at the head of the CEC,” — alerted the public to RIA “Novosti” in his telegram channel. Neither the format nor the content of the news does not give the desire to dispel the rumors — rather, it is possible to discern a contrary intention. How plausible version of the upcoming reshuffle, we asked well-known Russian political experts.
According to the President of the Center for political technologies Boris Makarenko, topics for discussion, yet generally there, “Ella Pamfilova another year to work up to a planned rotation”. In addition, the expert emphasizes, is not aware of any “personal circumstances” Ella Pamfilova, who would not allow her to finalize before the end of the legislature. “When you live the current CEC Chairman to find a replacement, in my opinion, not correct — he concluded. With all due respect to Vladimir Nikolaevich Pligin and his great experience.”
the political Scientist Dmitry Oreshkin also believes the information is accurate. However, results committed other arguments. To change the head of the CEC before the vote on the constitutional amendments he feels “short-sighted” first of all from a functional point of view: “nevertheless, the system is complicated. Until you understand how it works, how much, where and how can be corrected — I mean the voting results, — it is necessary to spend at least several months.”
the Second factor in favor of maintaining the status quo — “the PR component”: the replacement will make it clear that “the Kremlin does not trust the loyalty of Ella Pamfilova”.
“Information stuffing” — the handiwork of “close to the Kremlin circles,” says the analyst. The goal is “to increase the nervousness to arouse the interest of people for the upcoming vote.” If to speak about the longer term, the fate Pamfilova will depend on how will pass constitutional plebiscite. “If all goes well, why change a good working part in the machinery?”— concludes Oreshkin.
political Scientist, Professor of Economics Alexei Makarkin recalls the circumstances of the appearance Pamfilova at the head of the electoral system of Russia: “It was a political decision. Pamfilova was perceived as an alternative to Churov, as someone who can enhance the credibility of the Central electoral Commission and the credibility of the institution of elections”.
However, Pamfilova, who came from politics, unlike its predecessors, “a lot of emotions.” “Maybe in this situation, the idea that we need not a political figure, and that is called, more technical, more legal persons, says Makarkin. And Pligin is a very experienced lawyer.”
For reference: Vladimir Pligin state Duma Deputy of the fourth, fifth and sixth convocations of the party “United Russia”. Was the head of the Duma Committee on the constitutional��WMD legislation and state construction. Candidate of legal Sciences, honored lawyer of the Russian Federation.
“But now are unlikely to change, — the expert continues. — During a pandemic replacement, I think, can only be in a pinch. Still, the arrival of a new person means a very serious change in the work of any institution. But I would not exclude such developments in principle. Here the situation will calm down and return to relatively normal, then, probably, will be watching”.
Even more specific in their forecasts analyst Valery Solovey. Hearing about the imminent replace Pamfilova does not think it “misinformation”. According to him, is preparing a series of personnel changes in the upper echelons of power, and the replacement of the Chairman of the CEC — not the most serious of them. In addition, “we are talking about replacing the Prime Minister, several key Ministers, the head of the state Duma, shares his expert information. — All this in the framework of strengthening of crisis management. Speaking about the study, such terms are called: the middle – second half of June.”
However, these plans, negotiated a political scientist, are still under discussion: the final decision is made.
as the head of the CEC, claims from the Kremlin for her. However, the Kremlin “does not believe that Pamfilova able to “steer” the Central election Commission in the current crisis the socio-political situation, — said the analyst. — Projected a sharp deterioration of the situation — up to mass unrest”.
Candidate Pligin, according to Nightingale, is quite real: “it’s not how he is loyal. The fact that he is considered more tough leader”. Not the fact that the reshuffle will happen before the vote on the Constitution: it is unlikely that the Kremlin will dare to change horses in midstream. But the likelihood that this will happen after the plebiscite, is very large.
a nationwide vote is not the final test, which will undergo this year, the electoral system of the country. In September should be held regional elections. But this might not all. “Last week the regional election committees received guidelines on the preparation of the early parliamentary elections in December,” says the Nightingale.
the Answer, how wrong the experts in their calculations and hunches, maybe, okay, give only the time. But perhaps today we can confidently say that this year has in store for us many more “discoveries”.
