– the Russian currency is now locally responds mainly to the General tendency to antiislam sentiment in the financial markets and the current dynamics of oil prices, says the analyst. – And the prices of these fluctuate around an important technical and psychological level of $ 30 per barrel. It is a “magnet” that attracts the price and bottom, and top, not allowing it to significantly change.
on the one hand, there are positive expectations of higher oil demand in Association with some easing of restrictive measures against the pandemic in various countries. There are signs of increasing business activity, starts the auto season.
But there are fears that the recovery will be very long. And reaches in the coming weeks and half the lost demand for oil, which fell by 30 per cent (30 million barrels per day).
On the supply side – are also contradictory mood. The a++ trades OPEC to reduce production at 9.7 million barrels per day. Production in the US dropped by about a million barrels a day. Saudi Arabia earlier this week announced its intention to deepen the reduced output of oil in June, an additional one million barrels per day, nearly 40 percent less than in April. But there is an understanding that, even with the supply still greatly exceeds demand, and stocks are not reduced.
Fluctuations of the ruble follow these circumstance, but mitigated by the participation of the Central Bank and Ministry of Finance in the purchase and sale of foreign currency.
throughout the day Thursday, may 14, and following days, is not expected important events significantly affecting the exchange rate. It is unlikely, for example, it will be a data release may 14 on the amount of International reserves of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. Significant deviations from previous values in 567,3 billion dollars is expected.
More important would be information on the dynamics of GDP of Russia on Tuesday, 19 may. However, it will be limited, as is data for the first quarter of 2020. It is projected that whereas GDP rose by 1.9 percent (yoy), higher than in the previous period is 1.5 percent. But for market participants, of course, it is important to understand that these data are outdated. And do not reflect the reality of the “coronavirus” second quarter.
Accordingly, the exchange rate at the end of this and early next week, probably will not go beyond the already established range: 72,9 -75,2 rubles per dollar.
In the following months, the ruble may be under pressure due to the decrease of production, exports, revenues associated with the pandemic. This is likely to contribute to the financing of measures to support the economy, the possible reduction of the key rate of the Central Bank and the issue. The weakening of the ruble to the possible turn of 75-79 per dollar would be one of the factors usylenia consumer inflation.
In April is a little more apparent. Inflation was 3.1 percent (year-on-year), according to Rosstat. Including for food products – 3.5 per cent, on nonfood – 2,5, services – 2.9 percent. However, one should expect a further strengthening of growth in prices due to these factors. By the end of the year, he can make 4-5 percent.
