The European Commission presented its spring economic forecast. According to him, real GDP will decline by 7.7% in 2020, while the world economy may fall by 3%. The EC also downgraded its forecast for Russia’s GDP in 2020 with a growth of 1.4% before falling by 5%. The previous forecast was prepared prior to the start of the pandemic coronavirus in November 2019. It is assumed that in 2021 Euro zone economic growth will be 6.3%. In 2020, will be hardest hit economies of Spain, Italy and Greece, where it is expected to fall 9.4%, 9.5% and 9.7% respectively. In Germany GDP could fall by 6.5%, France 8.2%. The world economy in 2020 will be reduced by 3% of GDP compared to the 2019 year. This exceeds the damage from the crisis of 2008-2009. In the United States is expected to decline by 6.5%, UK — 8.3%. In China, the figure could grow by 1%. The European Commission expects Russia’s economy in 2021 will grow by 1.6% after falling 5% in 2020. The figure for 2021 increased by 0.1 percentage points.”Russia faced a double blow due to the sharp decline in oil prices and the slowdown in domestic demand due to quarantine in the context of flash COVID-19. Against this background, in the first half of 2020, it is expected a sharp decline in economic activity”,— stated in the report (.pdf). GDP growth of Russia slowed in March to 0.9% yoy from 2.8% in February and 1.7% in January. Central Bank expects that figure in 2020 will decrease by 4-6%. ACRE implies a fall to 4-4,5%, consensus Economics — 2%. Sberbank predicts a decline in GDP by 4.2%. The Chairman of the accounts chamber Aleksei Kudrin said that the rate could fall by 7-8%.Read more about the forecasts of the Central Bank — in the material “Kommersant” “it is Difficult to treat, easy cash”.
