On Thursday, the Euro for the first time in four months raised above the level of 86 rubles./€. The dollar peaked on may 17 — 73,69 RUB/$. Seven days a steady growth of courses of foreign currencies rose by 3-5 RUB the weakness of the ruble is associated with a reduction in the supply of foreign currency from exporters and increased demand from international investors, which will convert the dividends to or from OFZ.The seventh consecutive day the ruble starts trading with the rapid weakening of the against the leading world currencies. Already at the beginning of trading on the Moscow exchange rate of the Euro for the first time since the beginning of April has risen above the level of 86 rubles./€. At 14:00 rate rose to the level 86,58 RUB/€, the highest level since April 1. 14:40 then he stabilized near $ 86,53 RUB/€, which is 96 kopecks above the close environment. In turn, the dollar for the first time since may 18, rose above 73 rubles/$. During the trades he rose to the level 73,69 rubles/$ that by 1.12 RUB above the previous day’s close. By 14:40 the course was fixed near the level 73,60 RUB/$. Seven days of continuous growth of foreign exchange rates rose, respectively, almost 5. and 3 RUB. on Monday, the company completed the payment of severance tax, VAT and excise taxes 1 trillion According to the chief analyst of PSB Bogdan Zvarich, after passing the peak of tax payments support the ruble by internal factors decreased.Simultaneously, the market experienced a seasonal increase in demand for currency from importers and international investors. According to the chief analyst of “ALOR Broker” Alexey Antonov, the economy begins to revive, and need imported components and raw materials, besides, people are going to spend the rest of the summer in the Turkish resorts and buy currency. Strong pressure on the ruble is having the end of the season of dividend payments, which traditionally leads to an increase in demand for foreign currency by foreign investors.Last Friday, the regulator is expected to cut rates by 0.25 percentage points to 4.25%. However, he has revised inflation forecasts for the next two years, which suggests 3.5 to 4% next year and 4% in 2022. According to analysts of Alfa-Bank, the attitude of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation in the future to lower the rate in small steps tells the approach of a bottom in the cycle of reduced rates and also limits the attractiveness of the ruble. In such circumstances, international investors began to take profits in the OFZ (see “Kommersant” on July 30). “Reduction of long positions in the ruble in anticipation of the August and possibly the final stage of the race in the United States. The possible victory of Democrats definitely will not be welcomed by the Russian market”,— said the head of conversion and interbank operations of Bank “Zenit” Alexander Karpov.In the coming weeks, market participants do not expect the situation to improve. According to the main��about RDIF economist Dmitry Polevoy, contained in the daily report of the RDIF, on this and the following week the dividend will remain the main factor for the ruble. “The growth of external risks associated with the spread of coronavirus and tensions between the US and China, will not allow the national currency to start the wave of recovery. As a result, in the framework of the next sessions of the logical stabilization of the U.S. currency in the area of 72.5–75 rbl./$,”— said Bogdan Zvarich. “Oil remains stable and without leaving the corridor of $42-45 per barrel has no noticeable effect on the course. The traffic rate is above 75 rbl./$ still appears to be unjustified without some strong additional factors,” says Alexander Karpov.Vitaly Gaydayev
