Especially for “the Russian newspaper” Sergey Drozdov, an analyst CC “FINAM”, explained the weak position of the dollar, and described the consequences of a possible return restrictions in Europe related coronavirus:
– Movement of the American currency, – says the expert – now depends on global investors. And they Express concerns about the rapid recovery of the American economy on the background of weak data on U.S. labor market and the continued growth of diseases of coronavirus. That, of course, weakening the dollar.
in addition to the upcoming US Federal reserve meeting which will conclude on Wednesday, the players believe that the office of Jerome Powell will continue the soft monetary policy is still quite a long time. And once again promised the markets to drop the next portion of liquidity in case of need.
All of these factors put pressure on the American currency, which, besides weakening the Euro, on Monday surrendered their positions to the Japanese yen, Swiss franc and British pound. However, the weakening of “American” may come to its logical conclusion after the meeting of the Federal reserve. And the dollar may recover some previously lost positions.
In this regard seems inappropriate to make aggressive bets on the continued rampant growth of the Euro/ruble, especially to the level of 90. As for the Russian currency as a whole, against the background of still low oil prices, it will not receive major bonuses from the weakening of the dollar on global currency market. And for the most part focused on the domestic agenda, which at this stage is moderately negative for the ruble.
At the moment against the domestic currency are factors such as the reduction of foreign exchange intervention by the Bank of Russia, the reverse conversion into the currency receiving foreign funds, dividends from Russian companies and stopped its growth at the level of 45 dollars per barrel oil prices.
on Tuesday, the dollar/ruble attempted to exit over the top formed in early July, a comfortable range 70,50-72,30, a confident break above which could lead to its further ascent to level 73. However, the implementation of this scenario, this boundary may be a local limit to the weakening of the ruble against the dollar.
Now despite the fact that the world economy is trying to get out of coronaviruses coma in the Western press often headlines appear about the second wave of the pandemic. So, for example, the British newspaper the Guardian writes that the European countries increasingly are preparing for a second wave COVID-19 and are considering to return some limitations.
And yet even with a significant increase in the number of infected re-lock the world’s leading economies malovanaya��us, Europeans plan to limit the negative way can affect oil prices. This, in turn, will put pressure on the ruble exchange rate which may weaken to around 75 per dollar and 87 per Euro.
