the World economy will collapse by the year at 3%, Russian – 5.5%. And since the pandemic coronavirus evolves in an unpredictable manner and, apparently, will be delayed, this forecast may be revised only to the downside noted in its April review of the IMF. “The negative effects depend on factors superposed on each other, and they are hard to predict” — write the analysts of the Fund. Meanwhile, policymakers in developed countries in solidarity not spare funds for the support of businesses and citizens. We have the same idea of saving “helicopter money” vanished somewhere in the space of bureaucratic corridors: the government is not going to print for people in your main “store” – the national welfare Fund.
the International monetary Fund’s Forecast for Russia is close to to the head of the accounts chamber Alexey Kudrin: this year GDP will shrink by 3-5%, and in the pessimistic scenario — 8%. While the explosive growth of unemployment in our country, the Fund does not expect – from 4.6 percent it will grow from strength to 4.9%.
In General, for many States, even for the largest economies, “the predominant risk of the worst outcome”. For example, in the United States in 2020 is expected to the economic decline of 5.9%, while in January projected growth of 2%. A record, at 7.5%, the Eurozone will collapse. And it is absolutely not clear, how intense and effective it will be in the end, measures to combat the pandemic. The fate of the global economy depends, first of all, they – along with such factors as the extent of disruptions in the supply of goods, the fall in business activity and consumer demand. Describing the events as “the Great quarantine,” IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath suggested that cumulative losses in global GDP over the period 2020 and 2021 years will be about $9 trillion – more than Japan and Germany combined.
the IMF Forecast is based on the baseline scenario, according to which the peak of the pandemic will fall for the third quarter of 2020, and then begin the recovery, said a senior analyst at IAC Alpari Vadim Iosub. Moreover, the pace of this “intensive care” will depend on the efficiency and adequacy of the decisions taken by the authorities of different countries. If to speak about Russia, one of the most effective measures to support the economy would be the analogue of the unconditional income when a certain amount are given to all citizens. It would seem, says Iosub, it is logical to only help the most affected. However, such selectivity is extremely complex to administer, requires the development of clear criteria and fraught with abuse of power. If the money to distribute to everyone, they spur consumer demand, will flow into the economy and avoid social cataclismoV.
“Our top management is not ready to print a major financial coffers. The planned assistance is limited to the amount of 1.2% of GDP, whereas in the United States and Europe as a whole is 10%, in Germany – almost a third of GDP, – the Professor of faculty of world economy and international Affairs NRU HSE Alexei Portansky. – The government keeps a bunch of large capital corporations. Objectively, if you follow the recipes of developed countries, we need a more rational program of support of small and medium business”.
In Russia, I do not think that it is now necessary to lay the Foundation for the normal consumer activity and economic recovery in post-crisis period. Accordingly, Portansky concluded that the pandemic is over, we will find ourselves in the worst position in the world.
Financial crisis of 2008-2009 hit, primarily in the real economy. And the current, “coronavirus” – in the daily lives of people, as crippled services, says corresponding member of the Academy of Sciences Ruslan Grinberg. This world was completely unprepared, and the number one task now is to prevent the rapid rise of unemployment and poverty. “The Russian authorities should not be afraid of radical steps such as the launch of the “printing press” and, more obviously, direct payments business. If this is not done, it only gets worse: after catering, tourism, aviation industries, will begin to fall adjacent areas,” warns the economist.
