Especially for “the Russian newspaper” Ivan Kopeikin, head of analytical content “BCS”, noted the main factors of the weakening of the ruble and gave a forecast on its course:
– There is reason to believe, – said the expert – that next week the Russian currency to strengthen can not. There are six key reasons.
First. Amid the release from quarantine in Russia will actively increase imports, increasing the demand for the currency. While the growth of exports causes now almost there.
Second. The decrease in the volume of currency sales in the budgetary rules, as oil has increased substantially in recent years.
Third. Black gold in General have very high values, given the substantial demand reduction. To go further would be extremely difficult. Also some pressure on oil quotations can render a passage leading to the increase production of reduction of shale companies due to higher prices.
Fourth. Real interest rates in the country are becoming smaller, reducing demand for bonds, and thus the national currency. Already, the reduction in the rate of one percent at the next meeting almost fully reflected in yields of bonds.
Fifth. The ongoing trade war. The confrontation between the U.S. and China could negatively affect world economy and the Russian currency.
And finally, the sixth reason. As one of the additional risks it is worth noting the possibility of a second wave of infection Covid-19 closer to the fall, which may involve the world health organization. If this happens, the ruble, as the majority of risky assets, can significantly weaken (by 3-8 percent, depending on the actions of the authorities and the level of infection).
Therefore, the return of the dollar/ruble in the district 72-73 in the coming months has a fairly high chance of success. Recall that at this level the us currency rose after the announcement of the pandemic coronavirus.
the Russian currency is well appreciated due to the phased exit of developed economies scarantino, rising oil prices and news about the development of a vaccine from COVID-19, listed the factors supporting the ruble Ivan Kopeikin.
meanwhile, the expert specifies, the main positive point for the ruble remains unprecedented stimulation. The fed lowered rates to 0 percent and became unlimited to buy assets. The same principle was acted, and the Bank of Russia, reducing the rate to 5.5 per cent. The possibility to 4.5 percent. Such actions attract investors, increasing the demand for the national currency.
