The Russian ruble continues to lose ground against leading currencies. At the end of trading Wednesday the dollar on the Moscow stock exchange amounted to 72,83 RUB/$, which is almost RUB 1.1 higher than Friday’s closing. Pressure on the ruble have primarily internal factors: the demand for foreign currency from importers and non-residents, converting dividend payments of Russian companies.
* The consensus forecast was calculated as the arithmetic mean of the forecasts analyticities passing on Monday the peak of tax payments support the national currency by domestic factors initiationand the risks of deterioration of the external background for the national currency. In particular, speech can go about the retreat of oil prices to lower levels, justified from a fundamental point of view. Plus, the pressure on the ruble may have a poor appetite for risky assets, the intensification of the spread of coronavirus in Europe and Asia, which will contribute to reduced demand for emerging-market currencies and, consequently, the ruble. Also note that after the passage of Monday’s peak of tax payments support the national currency by domestic factors has declined. In the circumstances, expect to maintain pressure on the ruble, allowing the U.S. currency to strengthen above 72,5 RUB the pressure on the ruble also has a second phase dividend periodoral the beginning of the week again an outsider in the em currencies. While the global weakening of the dollar supports the em currencies, the ruble is practically not getting any benefits. Oil prices are holding at fairly high levels, including because of the weak dollar, but the ruble not enough to resume growth. The pressure on the ruble also has a second phase dividend period, which will remain relevant until the first decade of August with few interruptions. Among internal events — save the restrained interest in the market of Federal loan bonds, non-residents in most of the previously booked profits and are now waiting. The tax period is completed and it also does not find support. Despite this moderately positive background should keep the dollar in the range of 72-73 RUB in the Expected market expansion of monetary support from the fed is unlikely to be a sufficient driver to return the ruble to crepidioides confident that by the end of this week the ruble will be formed in the range of 71.8 to 73.2 rubles per dollar. In our view, the expected market expansion of monetary support from the fed is unlikely to be a sufficient driver for the return of the ruble to confidence strengthening. Seasonality the second half and the weakening current account, as well as risks intensify sanctionsOh rhetoric towards Russia will remain the main pressures on the ruble currency.The main reasons for the weakening of the national currency are the ongoing concerns of the second wave of the outbreak of coronavirus infection in miroslavoj of the Russian ruble over the past trading session occurs with the weakening of most currencies of em countries. The main reasons for the weakening of the national currency are the ongoing concerns of the second wave of the outbreak of coronavirus infection in the world. In addition, affected by the escalation of the conflict between the United States and China. All this together at the moment does not speak in favor of the demand for risky assets. Especially the Russian ruble fell against the Euro, because in the US, unlike the Eurozone, the situation with the pandemic COVID-19 develops at a much worse scenario. It is not necessary to dismiss and converting the received dividend payments, which also plays against the Russian ruble.
