Specially for Rossiyskaya Gazeta Mikhail Kogan, head of Department of analytical researches “Higher school of financial management”, said the ruble will handle this situation further and what it can support.
World markets have alarmed another economic results for the US – said the expert. Retail sales in April fell by 16.4 percent compared to March, which, in turn, was 8.4 percent worse than the previous month. In the industrial production numbers abbreviations for the same period was 11.2 and 5.4 percent, respectively. The dynamics were worse than during the great depression.
nevertheless, the financial markets survived the attack, I should say, relatively painless. The U.S. stock market opened with a decline of 0.7 percent and did not hurry with the lower levels. This suggests that the phase of risk aversion has been postponed.
That is good news for the ruble. Moreover, the prerequisites for further improvement of the situation on the energy market. A positive background creates an expectation of meeting with the Bank of Russia 16 of June, the key rate was reduced by 0.5 percentage points.
All this coming week could push the dollar and the Euro to lows from mid-March – 72.60 and 79 million, respectively. And this is not limited.
in part, this calm in the financial markets is due to expectations of a new stimulus. In the U.S., despite White house veto on a bill Democrats new stimulus package to support the economy in a pandemic COVID-19 three trillion dollars, it is obvious that he would not be forced to wait. In the European Union are also active discussions in this regard and called numbers in the two trillion euros.
Investors expect support from monetary authorities, particularly from the fed, which according to forecasts may announce further measures before the meeting in late June. Perhaps these signals will sound in the speeches of the head of the fed Jerome Powell in front of the two houses of Congress on Tuesday and Thursday.
Confirmation of these guesses, maybe even on some time to maintain stability in the financial markets. This will keep the flow of funds of non-residents in the Russian OFZ. And along with the start of the tax period (according to consensus estimates, the volume of payments in the budget will amount to 1.1 trillion rubles) to extend the period of strengthening of the ruble.
Also in the short term, the strength of the ruble will continue to give the situation on the energy market. After overcoming the resistance Brent price of $ 29 a barrel has any potential growth of 32.5-34 dollars in the coming weeks.
