on Tuesday, the rally in global markets has stopped. Following the markets the ruble also turned to decrease. Interestingly, oil has lost ground on Monday, but this movement did not find a response in the hearts of traders.
the trend, which is much more interested participants of the Russian market are fluctuations in risk assets such as stocks and bonds, pushing into the background the dynamics of oil.
the Nervousness of market participants is supported by fears that the recovery has gone too far after the Nasdaq began to update historic highs, and the S&P500 come out to the levels at the beginning of the year. Perhaps, in the history of the U.S. market is difficult to find a greater divergence between the dynamics of the economy and markets.
All the audible voices of skeptics who claim that even if the situation is like on the road to reform, GDP will not recover until the end of 2021, the same applies to the revenues of companies and income.
The same can be said about Russian companies. The easing of restrictions does not allow to say that the indicators will return to the levels of January-February. A large energy company obligation 20% reduction in production, which puts pressure on revenue even when recovery rates. Consumer sector and does suffer because of new regulations.
However, we cannot exclude other, more prosaic reasons for the pressure on the markets. On Wednesday evening there will be a meeting of the U.S. Federal reserve. Repeatedly before important meetings, the indexes are under increased pressure. Somebody explain this kind of soliciting new easing from the Central Bank, someone is talking about lock in profits before an important event. Anyway, the markets are often under pressure.
This pessimism about markets was able to easily switch to the ruble, and may persist in a large part of the environment, as the participants of the Russian market has to retreat. The ruble jealous were added in April and may the dollar and the Euro. Slip global markets launches reflex profit from the growth of the ruble last two months. However, only the market reaction to the fed later this week able to determine if this rebound in a big way, the ruble will return to growth after a short cooldown.
