Endure. Otmuchilsya. And then Wake up one morning and live as before — approximately on such a program now live 99% of the citizens of Russia. But here is this wonderful program even theoretically feasible? From different countries, who before Russia entered the fray with the coronavirus, now comes encouraging news about the imminent gradual lifting of the quarantine.
But, if you analyze these encouraging news on the bricks, then hope for at least a relatively fast return of the “good old days” starts to melt like icebergs in the period of global warming. The usual normality will not come back at once. It will be preceded by a prolonged period of “new normality” — a normality, which seems to be such only in comparison with the times of the peak of the epidemic.
the longer I live, the less I have hair. The less hair, the more we have to get a haircut. The more often you have to get a haircut, the more I worry about in cases when you have to skip to the correct time of the visit to your favorite hairdresser.
Now, of course, all the reasonable deadlines have long been missed. And recently, in a spare moment I decided on a whim to ask: when I can finally get “under the scissors”? According to the computer, it can be done already the first of may — the next day after the expiration of the current term of quarantine measures.
Seductive, of course. But although it was only a few computer mouse movements, I did not bother. The growth in the number of cases in Russia is relentless. Russia is entering the acute phase of the epidemic. It is clear, therefore, that 1 may I to the hairdresser will not get. And by the time of his birthday — may 14 — also will not get. And even in the first days of summer count is not particularly necessary.
But when this does not give a specific reason for joy, it is human nature to live in hope for a better future. Here, they say, will end this nightmare, and then again begin to live! But begin to live it? A chorus of statements by prominent European politicians shows that we need to learn every day repeating the phrase “Not so fast!”. The Prime Minister of France Edouard Philippe, April 19: “Our life after the end of the quarantine will not be the same as before the coronavirus. It wouldn’t be the same!”
on April 16, Warsaw, TASS: “the Minister of health of Poland Lukasz Shumovsky believes that the regulations enhanced hygiene and social distance imposed during the outbreak of a new type of coronavirus, have to comply with another year or two.
“We must learn to live in compliance with the basic norms of life in an epidemic,” said Shumovsky, explaining that we are talking about wearing masks in public places, disinfecting, personal hygiene and social distance. As said Polish mini��Tr, to live with the epidemic will have a long time: “Nothing indicates that it will end in a month or five.”
Czech President Milos Zeman, April 19: “I am of the opinion that the state border must remain closed for at least another year. Otherwise, foreign travel can lead to a new wave of the epidemic. I think that our citizens could use this situation in order to enjoy the beauties of their own country.”
what is the cause of these and other pessimistic forecasts? That quarantine — the double-edged sword. On the one hand, it removes the severity of the epidemic and thus save lives. On the other hand, only expands the problem in time. As said the same Edouard Philippe: “the spread of the coronavirus had been slow, and they caught very few of the inhabitants of France. To herd immunity us very far.”
Before the advent of the vaccine, as scientists assure, too far away. It turns out that any future lifting of restrictions will not only be slow and careful, and even timid — with an eye on the possibility of the second, third, fourth and the list goes on waves of coronavirus.
it is also Logical to assume that big countries, like Russia, to remove restrictions will be more difficult than the relatively compact States like the Czech Republic. And it is quite uncertain, as correctly pointed miloš Zeman, the prospects of the complete opening of borders. Every country is struggling with the coronavirus by and large alone in their national apartments. This fight will always be your Laggards. But if in such conditions to open the border, lagging in the absence of herd immunity will once again be everyone, including the leaders.
Remember, for example, at the beginning of the year, Russia had decided to shy away from the Chinese? But now the Chinese shy away from us. In China, our country is now considered a potential source of a second wave of infection.
All in all growth raises the question: how in these conditions can operate based on free movement of people and goods the world economy? Even if we manage to save and resume the free flow of goods, large-scale failures still cannot be avoided. And this is another argument in favor of the opinion that we should not expect a speedy return to our old normal. After all that recent, but already sunk into Oblivion era was based not only on the lack in our lives coronavirus, and globalization, on health (if you look at it from today) the state of the global economy. One pulls the other. And in this case this “other” is a General lowering of living standards.
of Course, all these gloomy predictions are not “cast in granite”, and even if cast, this granite may at any time be timesbroken into small pieces. In the present situation all predictions — it does not matter, optimistic or pessimistic — is nothing more than speculation. Everyone, including politicians who make decisions at the national level, very little reliable information about the coronavirus. Another equally serious problem is the lack of understanding of how to interpret this lack of information.
From this it follows that our “collective sandwich” will not necessarily always fall butter side down. At some point one or the other country can find or accidentally stumble upon reasonable trajectory out of the crisis.
for example, in Sweden hear the cautious assertion that after a few weeks, the country could achieve the desired herd immunity against the virus. But all this is still at level of hopes and dreams: from the tangible achievements of the Swedish policy of refusal to introduce tough quarantine until we can distinguish only much higher mortality than in the less advanced neighbouring Scandinavian countries.
so let’s Be patience and not wait for the ambulance for a full return to our old normal. But tell me somebody: when I can get to my favorite hairdresser? No more strength to endure!
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