That the coronavirus decisively changed our lives already commonplace. In General, all agree with that, but as you know, there is always a particular, which is a refuge of the devil. There is a common interest of all, and there are specific individuals or groups. And between them the sparks of high voltage, a tug of war of influence, manipulation — in short, politics.
Any restrictions cause natural, that is preconscious or subconscious protest. Even medical. Although medicine is compelling, because we only get one. But the coronavirus imposes restrictions associated not only with health.
a Classic example is the situation around the oil agreement OPEC+. It is all here — the scandals, rising at the interstate level; a very short memory; self-deception; sectoral egoism, rolling, as you would say in another unforgotten times, in a large-scale “wrecking”. And all of them, the shackles of self-restraint.
This, of course, is not medicine, and the economy. But the economy has impressive arguments. We are all fully felt in March, when a mechanism for limiting oil production and is OPEC+ was disabled. Soon appeared in the form of sedation, and in fact the alarmist estimates of how long the Russian budget remain on the ventilator, which he will give the national welfare Fund. The ruble has gone into free fall. And all because the collapsed oil prices.
whether from the ides of March have we learned? Formally — Yes. On 9 April, the OPEC agreement+ not only returned, but brought with it a new, many times more severe restrictions on oil production in comparison with those not agreed in March. Agreed, we must honestly admit — because new restrictions were opposed by Russia, despite the fact that by the time coronavirus has already slowed the global economy. So, it became obvious that the demand for oil will continue to decline.
that March, Moscow’s position was incorrect, it is highly costly to the economy as a whole, no one in the power of the evil tradition is not recognized. Only Leonid Fedun, co-owner and Vice-President of LUKOIL, metaphorically compared the difficult recovery of the OPEC+ with the Brest peace. Against such comparisons were made by another prominent oilman, head of the state company “Gazprom Neft” Alexander Dyukov. But here are the facts of a history textbook confirming this parallel: Brest-Litovsk was concluded between Soviet Russia and the Kaiser of Germany on 3 March 1918, after February 10, Leon Trotsky rejected the first version of the agreement proposed by Germany. In the result the peace Treaty was signed on much worse conditions for Russia.
Temporary zeroing of OPEC+ is an obvious political Osh��BKA, the results of which are already having an impact. When the interests drop, finally, a painful self-restraint are high, and the power of the hands is not an effort, memory is greatly shortened, and the desire to break the shackles gets stronger.
This desire manifests itself in two ways. There are academic symptoms. Before March 2020, the related Ministry of energy, Ministry of economic development and even CB common place is the assertion that OPEC restrictions+ imposed on oil production, reduce the Russian economic growth.
At first glance it is. Times less oil is produced, GDP automatically decreases. Besides samosohraneniya oil companies are forced to cut investment in its industry, and it causes a negative cumulative effect even greater decline in GDP. Well, if GDP was measured in barrels of oil, the calculations would be flawless. But here’s the problem, otherwise it is measured in monetary units. And the transition from the barrels into rubles to provide prices. And then the question arises, which ones who sees the decline of oil production, GDP decline, they prefer to quietly ignore. How to change oil prices, if restrictions on its production to take off? The answer meanwhile has long been well known, the agreement OPEC+ and was in order to get prices to go back to growth. I will remind, OPEC+ acts with a break in March 2020 November 30, 2016. Up to this point, there was an Orgy of oil production growth in a falling prices, which was repeated in March 2020. The essence of the agreement — limitation of oil production to at least partially restore the price target from a height of $107,75 per barrel (average price for January — August 2014) was shot down actively intervene in the market situation of shale miners of the United States. In General, the policy of OPEC+ is justified.
Honestly, I thought after March 2020, claims that the restrictions of oil do not give rise the Russian economy will not appear, the March decline in GDP after the price of oil will not allow it. Wrong. Those who oil the arithmetic is more expensive than common sense, has opened a second wind. Everything is back to normal. Myths are indestructible.
Their persistence is fueled by the interests of oil companies. This is not an academic interest. The oil companies did not want to freeze their projects, deadening invested capital, they live prey. There is one important caveat. What happened with the extraction of Russian oil in the period of the agreement OPEC+ by 2020? In 2017 it dropped, but by only 0.1%, in 2018 there was an increase in production is quite significant 1.6% in 2019, the growth continued and amounted to 0.8%. No reduction, on the contrary, for the 2017-2019 years, oil production in Russia increased by 2.3%. As this growth coexisted with restrictions on OPEC+? Peacefully. All ingenious is simple, countdown the agreed OPEC+ reduction of production happened from the level of October 2016 years, when Russia especially prudent dispersed production to the maximum, and further do not violate formal agreements.
Honor and praise to Russian oil! But not all cat carnival. When in March 2020 Saudi Arabia has offered to reduce oil production OPEC+ another 1.5 million barrels per day (Russia had to reduce its production by 0.3 million barrels), Russian oil companies, faced with the threat this time is real, not paper production cuts, balked. But the events of March did not help them. In April, the quota for the additional production cuts in Russia was 2.5 million barrels per day.
the Difference Russian oil companies have already felt. Accordingly, the public presented the calculations: from July to December 2020, Russia will have to cut production 40.4 million tons. And it concludes: “on such costs, Russian companies are unlikely to go”.
So the new Russian assault on OPEC+ is actually announced. The Russian authorities will again have to make a choice between the interests of the oil companies and the interests of the economy overall, Federal budget, social policy, poverty reduction. Will this time be a lesson learned from the events in March or self-restraint instead of oil will spread on the memory?
