Amid the continuing crisis trends, the office space tenants continue to negotiate with the owners: they expect to receive discounts or to get out ahead of the lease agreements for the move to cheaper accommodation. But lower prices is only the owners of the problematic objects. The owners targetrow and premises of street retail are more flexible, extending the discount to most tenants before the end of the year.The current vacancy rate on the office market is 12.3%, which is three percentage points (PP) higher than the same value last year. Such data led analysts of Cushman & Wakefield. Partner Natalia Nikitina said that the market is beginning to emerge of large office blocks with area over 1 thousand sq. m. “Many tenants continue to pay for space because they can not withdraw from the Treaty, but asking owners to show their offices as free,” she explains. Director of Department of office real estate at Colliers International Natalia Bonneli adds that the tenants of the offices are still actively engaged in negotiations on subsequent re-examination of current conditions. “Companies are trying to understand how much space they need,” she says. Most of the blocks, according to her, will be released in early 2021.Offices without sotrudnikov Knight Frank important factor increase the vacancy rate referred to the transition of the office employees to remote work. Meanwhile, analysts point out that the situation in the segment of class b office space is more stable: it remains the alternative for tenants in expensive areas. The regional Director for work with key clients of the office real estate Department at Knight Frank Konstantin Losyukov said that the current situation has not made landlords more flexible in the negotiations: concessions ready to go only owners with a big share of empty space. Natalia Nikitin adds that the more cooperative are the owners of the premises, which tenant may prematurely exit the lease. The figure, according to her forecasts, will remain at the same level as last year and will be 20 thousand rubles per sq m per year.In St. Petersburg, observed a similar trend. Deputy General Director Knight Frank St Petersburg Mikhail Tyunin said that by the end of the first half of the total volume of vacant offices has made 233,4 thousand square meters is 48% higher than a year earlier. The expert expects that the figure will continue to rise. However, market activity, he said, remains the same: many tenants migrate from class A offices in class — it is they, according to the estimates of Mr. Tunin, now accounts for the bulk of the requests.Empty alizasherman street retail has reacted to the current crisis faster. According to estimates by CBRE, the vacancy rate for shopping the streets of Moscow now is 11.6%, since March the index rose by 3.4 percentage points, becoming the highest in the last four years. This dynamic head of street retail at CBRE Julia Nazarov connects with a forced two-month shutdown of non-food shops and catering establishments. Most of the closings, she said, has formed a sales network and the banks that prior to the crisis, actively optimized the number of their branches and could terminate the agreement without significant penalties. Additionally, according to Ms. Nazarova, affected tenants, focused on the tourist stream: for example, on the Arbat, the vacancy rate increased from 8.5% to 13.7%.Rising vacancy rates and reduced demand, according to estimates of JLL, has led to a decrease in the average cost of rent in most shopping streets in 5-13%. Yulia Nazarova predicts that a decrease in average rental rates for the premises of street retail will continue until the end of the year, qualifies this by adding that it at least touches the top shopping streets of the Kuznetsk Bridge and Petrovka district of Patriarch’s ponds. The head of street retail company “Shop of shops” Marina Markova believes that, despite the increase in the vacancy rate, the market continues to be transaction — this allows you to maintain balance. Most tenants, she said, asking the owners of discounts on new term, often until the end of the year. Significant risk factor, according to Mrs. Markova for food service establishments will be closing in October, patios, in cafes and restaurants need to keep a distance between clients and the number of seats declined markedly, now visitors are mostly sitting on the street.Source: Colliers International. Torgtsentrov without the stores on the shopping center market, the negative trend is not so pronounced. According to estimates by CBRE, the vacancy rate in Moscow now is 6.6%, for the three months it grew by 0.6 p. p. Analysts do not predict any significant increase in the index in September: turnover of retailers in June and July showed a positive trend, many network performance and negotiations with the owners took the decision to maintain the site. But this position is not all consultants. So, JLL predict that by the end of the year the share of vacant space in Moscow torgtsentrov will increase to 8-10%. “The purchasing power of the population will not recover to previous level for some time, and many operators who were able to survive the suspension of their activities and optimize their networks in the short term during reduced demand”,— says head of the retail Department of JLL Polina Zhilkina.Polina Zhilkina says that the size of the discounts that the owners provide retailers, postepu��but reduced. So in April—June, forced to close their shops operators pay operating and utility costs. Until the end of August, the majority of owners have reduced the rental cost by 40-50%. In the third phase, from September to the end of the year, according to Ms. Zhilkin, the size of discounts will be adjusted on average up to 25-30%. Analysts of the company “Shop of shops” indicate that the turnover of most networks is not yet recovered, on average, fall relative to last year is 30-40%. Against this background, according to their forecasts, the owners prolong discount on rent until the end of the year, reducing their size as the recovery of trade.In Saint-Petersburg part of the risk distribution COVID-19 restrictions acted longer a full-time job-food stores torgtsentrov were able to resume only on July 27. Against this background, according to Ms. Zhilkin, to talk about the growth of vacancy rates until early autumn buyers will realize the pent-up demand. Then, according to experts, the market will be faced with increased rotation and increased vacancy rates in the less successful shopping centres. “This will primarily contribute to the decline in real income of the population and migration part of the demand in e-commerce”,— says Polina Zhilkina.Alexandra Mertsalova
