According to a survey, the CSU and Free Voters have the necessary majority to continue governing in Bavaria, just under a year before the election. Going downhill with the greens.
Eleven months before the state elections, the signs in Bavaria point to continuity: If the elections were held on Sunday, the Christian Socialists would get 41 percent of the votes, according to a representative survey by the opinion research institute Civey on behalf of the “Augsburger Allgemeine”. Compared to the previous month, this means an increase of two percentage points. In November 2021, the CSU was still at 33 percent. Ten percent would vote for the coalition partner, the Free Voters. The incumbent government would thus continue to have a clear majority.
According to the survey, the Greens have to accept significant losses. While 21 percent of Bavarians still wanted to vote for them in October, it is now only 17 percent. The next places are followed by the SPD and AfD, who would come level with the Free Voters at ten percent. The FDP and the left would continue to fail at the five percent hurdle. The Liberals lose another percentage point and are at three, the Left at two percent.
Prime Minister Markus Söder can also be at least a little happy. It is true that more people in the Free State are dissatisfied with their work than satisfied. However, according to another representative survey by the opinion research institute Civey, the number has fallen slightly – from 49 percent in October to 48 percent now. At the same time, the proportion of those who give him a good reference has increased – from 39 to 42 percent.
For its representative surveys, the opinion research institute Civey only counts the votes of registered and verified Internet users who have provided data such as age, place of residence and gender. The votes are weighted according to a scientific method according to the composition of Bavaria’s population. For the first question, the answers of 5,501 selected citizens from Bavaria in the period from November 6th, 2022 to November 20th, 2022 were taken into account, for the second question in the period from October 23rd, 2022 to November 20th, 2022 the answers of 5,002 selected citizens selected to be representative of the population citizens of Bavaria.
