A new corona wave is rolling over Germany – and in summer of all places. The trigger for this is the infectious BA.5 variant. Corona modeler Kristan Schneider explains what danger it poses and why he considers the current Corona policy irresponsible.
The corona numbers are increasing. Thanks to the even more contagious sublineages BA.4 and BA.5, the low-case summer effect seen over the past two years appears to be melting like ice in the sun. The nationwide incidence is now over 500 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. On Tuesday alone, the RKI reported 123,097 new infections. Due to the lower number of tests, the number of unreported cases is likely to be significantly higher. Not good conditions for autumn.
Mathematics professor and corona modeler Kristan Schneider from Mittweida University of Applied Sciences agrees. Despite the lower number of tests in many countries such as Denmark, it would be noticeable that the numbers are increasing. He considers this development to be dangerous: “I think it’s wrong that testing is now practically no longer carried out, for example at school or at work,” he said in an interview with “T-Online”.
Schneider is therefore critical of the fact that there are currently hardly any measures in Germany to stop the development: “…abolishing the mask requirement indoors was a mistake,” says the mathematician. The vaccination status in Germany with just over 76 percent of people with basic immunization and 61 percent with boosters doesn’t help much either: “That only plays a subordinate role with BA.5, because this variant largely bypasses the vaccination protection,” Schneider continued to tell “T-Online “.
Several studies actually point to this. Researchers at the Ohio State University, for example, have examined the effectiveness of double and triple vaccinations against the variants BA.4 and BA.5, among other things. It was shown that a basic immunization with two doses of the mRNA vaccines we currently use, Biontech/Pfizer and Moderna, is not sufficient to neutralize these variants. Only boosted ones have better protection – but it is significantly lower than compared to the variants BA.1 and BA.2.
Even with the Omikron variant BA.2, many vaccinated and boosted people fell ill in the past few months. This means that with BA.4 the vaccination is even less effective against infection and disease than against BA.2. Especially if it’s been a long time.
This could also have been the case in Portugal. The country has experienced a violent wave in the past two months, despite a high vaccination rate. Scientists speculate that the increase in deaths there could be related to the fact that many older people have had their booster for a while and have not yet received a new one.
Schneider therefore believes that BA.5 is also causing trouble for us: “In the next few weeks we will see the phenomenon that more vaccinated than unvaccinated people have to be treated in the hospitals,” he said to “T-Online”. .
According to Schneider, this is a “logical consequence. “The mass of people are vaccinated, but BA.5 undermines this protection. In view of the high incidence of infection and the high level of infectivity, the virus will then reach the vulnerable groups again. Even in those for whom the vaccination has not worked or not fully worked,” he explains.
That is why he also believes that the number of deaths will increase, albeit at a low level. “If you were to convert the Portuguese mortality rate to Germany, we would have around 300 deaths a day in the BA.5 wave. We last had that in April. The question is whether you want to live with it.”
Other experts do not rule out that mortality from BA.5 will increase again. “It is quite possible that the current increase will continue for a while and also lead to an increase in deaths – as can be observed in Portugal,” says Friedemann Weber, virologist from the University of Giessen, to FOCUS Online.
However, Weber does not assume that BA.5 will throw us back to the level of the first waves: “Thanks to vaccinations and also because of previous infections, we have a certain population immunity and are therefore far from the magnitudes that existed in winter 2020/21 ‘ he explains.
Epidemic modeler Schneider still sees an urgent need for action. The scientist thinks it is wrong to only do something when the hospitalization rates are rising again: “If you see them, it’s already too late,” says Schneider on “T-Online”. “In August, the transmissibility increases again continuously until the end of the year and we will be confronted with correspondingly high numbers of infections,” he predicts. “We now need a uniform test strategy again,” he demands. Especially when returning travelers play a bigger role.
Schneider refuses to let Corona rush through the country unchecked, as is the case now: “The current Corona strategy is irresponsible,” he complains. It is questionable whether an epidemic actually improves the immunity of the population: “…it is known that one can become infected again with this variant [BA.5] and no lasting immune protection is built up. And then we don’t know whether a new or known variant will come our way in the fall,” Schneider continues.
In addition, virologists are currently not ruling out the possibility that the new variants could trigger more severe Covid 19 diseases than BA.2 did. “I think it’s possible that BA.5 could be a little more pathogenic again, but that hasn’t been finally clarified,” says Ciesek in the latest NDR podcast. The reason for this is the mutations at the key points of the spike protein, which enable the virus to more easily penetrate and infect the lung cells again. BA.2, on the other hand, was better able to penetrate the mucous membranes of the upper respiratory tract.
Nevertheless, due to the changed immunity in the population, Ciesek does not believe that the new variant can cause more damage than two years ago, when there were no vaccinations, antiviral drugs and monoclonal antibodies.
A fourth vaccination for everyone, as Karl Lauterbauch is currently recommending, is still advocated by Kristan Schneider – although its effectiveness is reduced compared to the new variants: “I think that’s reasonable, even if the Standing Vaccination Commission hasn’t recommended it yet,” he says .
So far, the Stiko only recommends the second booster to certain groups, including
Schneider is convinced that the fourth spike could help to avoid a further increase: “The vaccination offers at least temporary protection and can flatten the wave.”
