After the battle for the eastern city of Kharkiv, a “window of opportunity” is opening for Ukraine’s operational planning, says former General Mick Ryan. Ukraine must launch a counter-offensive in the east at the right time.
After Kyiv, the Ukrainian army has won a second important battle against the Russian invaders, the battle for the city of Kharkiv in the east of the country. According to a statement from the Ukrainian military, Russian troops who had been trying to conquer Kharkiv for weeks are withdrawing. Russia has again failed to achieve one of its war goals. In fact, the Russian army “was almost brought to a standstill by the Ukrainians,” says military expert Mick Ryan. For Ukraine, on the other hand, this is a humanitarian and political success.
Australian ex-General Ryan sees the Battle of Kharkiv as a “turning point” for the entire Russian campaign. As in the Battle of Kyiv, Ukraine has proven it can defend itself and go on the offensive to retake territory, Ryan wrote on Twitter. “They are still superior to the Russian army in terms of strategy and combat.” However, this should not be equated with a Russian defeat. But: “Russia may soon no longer be able to conduct offensive operations.”
Ukraine now has several options, says Ryan. They had to time a possible broader counter-offensive east of Kharkiv and launch an attack across the Donets River and behind the Russian axis of advance towards Izium. Ukraine didn’t have much time to muster forces and support for another counteroffensive in the east. “She must strike before the Russians adopt a defensive stance. The Russians will then be much harder to push back,” says Ryan.
This region to the east of Kharkiv is particularly suitable for a Ukrainian counter-offensive because most of the Russian forces are further south and east, and capturing this area would hamper Russian supplies. Fighting against even the slightest concentration of the enemy, attacking weakly defended locations and logistical hubs, “has been Ukraine’s approach throughout the war,” Ryan explains. Nevertheless, a Ukrainian success is not guaranteed. “The results range from a Russian collapse and then retreat, to a fight to a standstill and then stalemate, to a possible Ukrainian defeat,” concludes Ryan.
In addition, in the event of a Ukrainian counter-offensive, speculation is raised as to how far the Ukrainians could go and whether they might move to Belogrod. According to Ryan, this is unlikely for four reasons:
1. The Ukrainians have proved that they can fight the Russian army and do not need to go into Russia to do so.
2. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy would lose international credibility if he behaved in a manner similar to that of Russia.
3. Ukraine and Russia have realized that invading another country is much more difficult than defending your own.
4. Any Ukrainian invasion would confirm to Putin the sense of existential threat to the West that he described in his Victory Day speech. Zelenskyy, NATO and the USA would want to avoid this.
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